A Viewers Guide To The Florida Primary

[clearvision]

CBS News:

There's a lot to watch in Florida: two million votes are expected across a state with a varied Republican electorate. As they're being tallied up Tuesday evening, here's a viewers guide.

 

With its large an diversified electorate, Florida tests whether candidates can succeed across many different parts of the GOP's base: from the cultural conservatives in the panhandle, to the moderates who swung this primary to John McCain last time; retirees along the coasts and younger families in once-booming, Republican-leaning suburbs and exurbs, and, of course, the Tea Party activists who helped lead Rick Scott and Marco Rubio to wins here in 2010.

 

The tallies: Where the votes are

 

The winner will need to perform at least moderately well across a number of distinct regions and metro areas. Miami-Dade will of course be the largest county reporting Tuesday (perhaps 150,000 of those) but Florida's vote geography shifts a little bit northward in a GOP primary as compared to a General; a lot of votes come from areas Tampa, central and northward, where Republicans are more abundant.

 

On the registration rolls, Republicans dominate along the Florida coasts - many of which have been fast-growing, often wealthier counties, stretching along the Atlantic east of Orlando and on the Gulf Coast from Sarasota down to Ft. Myers. The panhandle, with its heavy military and retiree population and southern roots, boasts very heavy GOP registration percentages on the western side, as does the Jacksonville area on the Atlantic coast - that city grew rapidly in the 2000's, expanding outward, with exurban and suburbanites that tilted heavily to the GOP in General elections.

 

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Some useful information and map at link

[Valin]

By this time tomorrow the initial spin will be done the talking heads will be telling us black is really white, and up is down.

 

Then everyone will be winging their way to

February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)

 

 

Anyone care to make a small wager as to where the big guns will go? Nevada, Maine, Nevada, Maine? Warm weather, gambling vs colder than the 9th circle of hell and ice fishing....Gee that's a toughy.

[Pepper]

@Valin

 

This is not quite like as it was with McCain in 2008 and the clothespin requirement but it is difficult to get excited about any of the current crop.

 

Then look at the mess we are in and you can't wait for November to get here and throw any of the current bastids out.

[Valin]

@Valin

 

This is not quite like as it was with McCain in 2008 and the clothespin requirement but it is difficult to get excited about any of the current crop.

 

Then look at the mess we are in and you can't wait for November to get here and throw any of the current bastids out.

 

 

 

[Pepper]

Always a classic, thanks, @Valin

[clearvision]

Well Romney took Nevada by 50% in 2008. Paul and McCain in low teens. Not sure what is to be gained there.

[Valin]

Well Romney took Nevada by 50% in 2008. Paul and McCain in low teens. Not sure what is to be gained there.

 

I am assuming Romney wins Fla tonight. The question is by how much. if it not (say) 15% the electability question will gain ground.

If he does win big then he has to do the same until February 28 ]Arizona, Michigan primaries. So no matter what happens tonight, Az. & Mi are going to be very important.

 

 

[Valin]

Townhall

 

0% of precincts reporting

 

Mitt Romney

Votes: 98,674 52%

 

Newt Gingrich

Votes: 48,931 26%

 

Rick Santorum

Votes: 22,313 12%

 

Ron Paul

Votes: 14,399 8%

[Valin]

Google: Florida Primary

 

7.0% reporting (475/6796)

 

 

 

Romney 49.0% 209,835

 

Gingrich 28.3% 153,872

 

Santorum 11.9% 64,765

 

Paul 6.7% 36,441

[Valin]

NY Times: Live Coverage of the Florida Primary

By NATE SILVER

7:15 P.M.

Romney Has Huge Early Edge in Tampa

 

Mitt Romney is accumulating big margins based on the votes counted so far - leading Newt Gingrich 52 percent to 26 percent with 9 percent of precincts reported.

 

It's likely that these numbers slightly overstate Mr. Romney's eventual margin of victory because they consist mostly of early and absentee votes.

 

Still, the geographic distribution of the votes bodes extremely well for Mr. Romney. Around 100,000 votes have already been counted in the Tampa metro region - the state's traditional bellwether - and Mr. Romney has about 50 percent of them so far.

[Valin]

Google

 

22.3% reporting (1513/6796)

Romney 49.6% 402,691

 

Gingrich 29.7% 241,345

 

Santorum 12.3% 99,528

 

Paul 6.7% 54,372

 

 

[Valin]

NY Times 538

 

7:36 P.M. |Romney Unlikely to Win 50 Percent of Vote

 

With 41 percent of precincts reporting in Florida so far, Mitt Romney has 50 percent of the vote. Although all signs point toward an impressive victory for him tonight, he is unlikely to wind up with an outright majority of the vote.

 

There are two simple reasons for this. First, polls still have not closed in the Florida Panhandle - which should be one of Newt Gingrich's best regions. Second, the votes that have been counted so far contain a heavy proportion of early and absentee ballots, which are likely to favor Mr. Romney more than the votes cast today. It is more likely that Mr. Romney will wind up somewhere in the mid-40s than at 50 percent or higher.

 

- Nate Silver

[Rokke]

The only real question is how the turnout is. This primary has obviously gotten a lot of publicity. If turnout is low, it indicates Republicans in general are not enthusiastic about their choices. If Romney wins in a blow out with higher than normal turnout, it is a good sign for the Republican party.

[Valin]

The only real question is how the turnout is. This primary has obviously gotten a lot of publicity. If turnout is low, it indicates Republicans in general are not enthusiastic about their choices. If Romney wins in a blow out with higher than normal turnout, it is a good sign for the Republican party.

 

7:29 P.M. |Jewish Turnout Low in Florida

 

There has been some speculation that Democrats could struggle to hold the Jewish vote in 2012. They had struggled, for instance, in the special election in New York's 9th Congressional District in 2011, which has a heavy Orthodox Jewish population.

 

But there is no sign tonight of Jewish voters switching their registration over to the Republican side in Florida. According to early exit polls, just 1 percent of voters in tonight's Republican primary identified as Jewish. That's down from 3 percent in the Florida Republican primary in 2008, which also might mean that Jewish Republican voters in the state are not terribly enthusiastic about this group of candidates. Jewish turnout in general elections in Florida is normally about 4 percent.

 

- Nate Silver

[Rokke]

The only real question is how the turnout is. This primary has obviously gotten a lot of publicity. If turnout is low, it indicates Republicans in general are not enthusiastic about their choices. If Romney wins in a blow out with higher than normal turnout, it is a good sign for the Republican party.

 

7:29 P.M. |Jewish Turnout Low in Florida

 

There has been some speculation that Democrats could struggle to hold the Jewish vote in 2012. They had struggled, for instance, in the special election in New York's 9th Congressional District in 2011, which has a heavy Orthodox Jewish population.

 

But there is no sign tonight of Jewish voters switching their registration over to the Republican side in Florida. According to early exit polls, just 1 percent of voters in tonight's Republican primary identified as Jewish. That's down from 3 percent in the Florida Republican primary in 2008, which also might mean that Jewish Republican voters in the state are not terribly enthusiastic about this group of candidates. Jewish turnout in general elections in Florida is normally about 4 percent.

 

- Nate Silver

 

I suspect there will be low turnout across the board. I think that will carry over into the national election too. On both sides. Unfortunately, Republicans need a high turnout on their side to win national elections.

[Valin]

Florida Primary

January 31, 2012

35.3% reporting (2397/6796)

 

 

Romney 48.1% 477,936

 

Gingrich 30.8% 305,396

 

Santorum 12.8% 126,909

 

Paul 6.8% 67,794

[Rokke]

Results from 2008....

 

 

 

Candidate Votes Percentage Counties Delegates John McCain 701,761 36% 45 57 Mitt Romney 604,932 31.03% 18 0 Rudy Giuliani 286,089 14.68% 0 0 Mike Huckabee 262,681 13.47% 4 0 Ron Paul 62,887 3.23% 0 0 Fred Thompson* 22,668 1.16% 0 0 Alan Keyes 4,060 0.21% 0 0 Duncan Hunter* 2,847 0.15% 0 0 Tom Tancredo* 1,573 0.08% 0 0 Totals 1,949,498 100% 67 57

* Candidate dropped out of the race prior to primary.

[Valin]

So far this looks like a good thumpin

 

The lesson is negative ads work

[Valin]

NY Times 538

8:00 P.M. |Florida and Virginia Give Romney Delegate Advantage

 

With Mitt Romney's win in Florida tonight, he has won all of the state's 50 delegates - although there is some chance the outcome could be disputed because Florida's winner-take-all allocation is technically in violation of Republican party rules.

 

(Snip)

 

That would give Mr. Romney a total of 96 delegates between Florida and Virginia alone (Virginia has 49 delegates, but three of them are automatic delegates, often called super delegates). Although this represents only 8 percent of the delegates that Mr. Romney would eventually need to cinch the Republican race, it would nevertheless constitute a tangible advantage in the event of a close back-and-forth race against Mr. Gingrich.

[WestVirginiaRebel]

That sound you hear is of multiple heads exploding at TOP.

[Casino67]

The networks take all of the fun and suspense out of elections when they call the winner seconds after polls close.

[Valin]

The networks take all of the fun and suspense out of elections when they call the winner seconds after polls close.

 

Including the Panhandle?

[Valin]

So far this looks like a good thumpin

 

The lesson is negative ads work

 

One more lesson...My Guy always loses.

[Valin]

That sound you hear is of multiple heads exploding at TOP.

 

You will be shocked to learn, they are not happy.

 

 

Oh and just in case you were wondering this is the end of the Republic.

We're all DOOMED

[Casino67]

The networks take all of the fun and suspense out of elections when they call the winner seconds after polls close.

 

Including the Panhandle?

 

I think they did wait until 8PM when all polls closed throughout the state.