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Primary 2012


Rheo

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We are down to 4 potential candidates and one candidate thread. ;)

Feel free to post snipped articles in News as well.

 

 

 

Featured author: John F. Di Leo

 

Choosing A Champion, Cycle After Cycle

 

Eligibility and the American Presidency

 

Five mainstream Republican resolutions for 2012

 

 

From TRR News Forum contributor Rokke:

 

There are two myths that establishment politicians perpetuate to try and force their choice on the electorate. Myth 1 is that the independent vote is what determines election outcomes. Myth 2 is that the youth vote changes the outcome of national elections.

 

"Independent" voters are not some open-minded group of interested observers waiting to be swayed left or right by the candidate of either party who appeals to them most during that voting cycle. Data shows that independent voters are just as partisan as voters registered to a specific party. Independent voters who traditionally vote democrat almost always vote democrat, and independent voters who traditionally vote republican almost always vote republican. So forget the independent vote. They are simply republican/democrat voters who have taped over their party affiliation.

 

Young voters generally don't turnout. In the 2008 election with the very cool and different Obama luring youth to the voting booth, youth turnout spiked 2% from 2004. Most of that spike was black youth who voted greater than 95% for Obama. Young voters make a lot of noise and then fail to follow through. They are attracted to candidates like Ralph Nader, Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich because those candidates are cooly outside the mainstream. Before the actual election, each of those candidates consistently win internet polls, bumper sticker wars, and political rally disruptor contests. But on the big day, they don't even register at the ballot box.

 

Yet, for some reason, establishment politicians bend over back wards to compromise almost every principle they cling to in order to attract young and independent voters. What a waste. Last election we ended up with McCain because he supposedly had such a strong appeal with independents and crossover dems. The net result was a 1.5% decrease in Republican voter turnout, while Obama enjoyed a 2.5% increase in democrat turnout. In the last several election cycles, registered democrats have outnumbered registered republicans by almost 30%. Republicans still win office because republican voters tend to turnout more reliably at the ballot box. Republicans win when registered republicans are fired up by their candidate. Democrats win when republicans are not fired up by their candidate. What do George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, and John McCain have in common other than losing in a general election? They attempted to win elections by appealing to "independent" voters and failed to motivate voters in their own party.

 

Mitt Romney has failed to motivate republican voters. He's tried hard. But he has failed. A majority of republican voters just can't get excited by him. That leaves Santorum and Gingrich. Which one of those two is going to appeal to the youth vote? Probably neither. Who cares. The youth vote doesn't win elections for republicans. Which one of those two is going to appeal to independent voters? Probably neither. Who cares. Independent voters aren't and will probably vote in the same pattern they always have. Which one of those two is going to fire up republican voters? Right now, it is definitely Gingrich. And neither of them will win a general election without a fired up republican voting base. If Santorum wants to be the nominee, he needs to do something quickly to fire up republican voters. I'm not sure he's capable. Especially while he stands in Newt's shadow. He's got time, but not much. Right now, he's the Lamar Alexander of the primary season. That does not win elections.

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My prediction to follow. I am good at this as the sun did come up this morning. :P

 

Gingrich/Santorum

 

Santorum brings the family values and more importantly the independent/Reagan Democrats that value manufacturing and the direction this country has gone. He is getting big dollar donations from those two segments. Not strong enough to carry the presidency on his own against Obama, IMO.

 

Newt is firing up the base just like we need. It will not happen without that as others have stated. It is true.

 

Romney has fallen to third place in my mind. Take that with a grain of salt. ;)

Will be an interesting week.

 

 

 

Bear down and ride, this rodeo has just begun. :D

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Will this work? Having one thread for the remaining candidates? Post stand alone articles in News and snips here?

Any other suggestions?

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Meet The Press

 

Gingrich can't win

 

I'm loving it. The liberal press are touting Romney because only he among the Republican candidates is electable. I hope and pray that the electorate will continue to ignore them. It is obvious that they are afraid to let Newt debate The "o", and with good reason.

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I have to give kudos to Newt for his victory speech Saturday night. He praised the other three candidates, and pointed out their strengths as great products of the American society. He didn't bash any of them, and didn't try to say that he was better than any of them. Hopefully, this civility will spread to the others and we can listen to how they are better than The "o".

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I have to give kudos to Newt for his victory speech Saturday night. He praised the other three candidates, and pointed out their strengths as great products of the American society. He didn't bash any of them, and didn't try to say that he was better than any of them. Hopefully, this civility will spread to the others and we can listen to how they are better than The "o".

 

Surprising how magnanimous a victor can be. He wasn't that kind after the Iowa caucus.

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Thanks for the new thread. For the moment, I am going to hold my tongue on this, but I am becoming EXCEEDINGLY nervous about this race. Scared, actually.

 

Any way we could merge the experience and personal character and business success of Romney with the intelligence, articulation and passion of Newt?

 

I'd feel a whole lot less nervous. I may have to start supporting Thaddeus McCotter.

 

Edited to add: This is from someone who lives in a very blue state, has lots of disillusioned conservative AND liberal friends and probably a very, very different perspective than voters in South Carolina. I always look to see if a candidate can appeal to "uncommitted non-partisans who hate all politicians but care enough to vote" folks. They have their ideals, as Rokke points out, but at least in my state vote for the "less scary of the two candidates." Is this a case of "better the evil you know?"

 

But, as Rheo says, take it with a grain of salt.

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Polly, if you are scared, just think about how Obama feels. His base is falling away and unlikely to vote for him again.

 

P.S.

 

Happy Birthday, belatedly.

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Polly, if you are scared, just think about how Obama feels. His base is falling away and unlikely to vote for him again.

 

P.S.

 

Happy Birthday, belatedly.

 

 

Thanks!

 

I don't think Obama has feelings. Haha! I'm not sure he's feeling scared, and that is part of what's got me. I've got two candidates I don't trust, albeit for different reasons, a president that is out of control and more worried about his appearances at the apollo theater and self congratulating himself than doing any work...and a country falling apart.

 

It makes me want to crawl under the bed. Seriously. What options are there? I need someone to tell me WHY Newt or Romney would make decent presidents. I want someone with the courage to inspire us to work harder because its actually going to pay off--not be frittered away on pet projects and insider trading.

 

Ever feel like asking...what the hell happened to our country?

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Ever feel like asking...what the hell happened to our country?

Yes, yes I have.

Liberals have been controlling every segment, by crook or hook. And we have allowed it.

 

Do I have the answers?

No, no I do not.

 

But, I am starting to think Santorum should be VP, regardless of who is president, Mitt or Newt or unknown. He brings a lot more to the table as VP. I do not think he can go up against the Obama regime for president at this point. IMO..changing hourly...

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Ever feel like asking...what the hell happened to our country?

Yes, yes I have.

Liberals have been controlling every segment, by crook or hook. And we have allowed it.

 

Do I have the answers?

No, no I do not.

 

But, I am starting to think Santorum should be VP, regardless of who is president, Mitt or Newt or unknown. He brings a lot more to the table as VP. I do not think he can go up against the Obama regime for president at this point. IMO..changing hourly...

 

Yes, I agree. Santorum is one of those guys that is cut out to be Robin...not Batman. Doesn't mean he isn't heroic...just not lead hero.

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The one thing about Santorum as VP is can he carry PA in the general election? Newt, should he win needs a VP candidate that will help him in the north and northwest. I don't know who that would be.

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Yes, I agree. Santorum is one of those guys that is cut out to be Robin...not Batman. Doesn't mean he isn't heroic...just not lead hero.

There is nothing wrong with wingman. ;)

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Yes, I agree. Santorum is one of those guys that is cut out to be Robin...not Batman. Doesn't mean he isn't heroic...just not lead hero.

There is nothing wrong with wingman. ;)

 

A couple of questions...

What do people think Santorum has to get in Fla in order to remain viable?

 

What do people think Newt has to get in order to remain viable?

 

(I'm assuming a Romney win in Fla) What if he wins by 5-6%? Does he remain viable?

 

I guess I'm asking the expectations question.

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WSJ: The Gingrich Challenge

A test for Romney, GOP officials, and the former speaker himself.

1/23/21

 

Newt Gingrich's sweeping victory in South Carolina throws the GOP Presidential contest into a useful uproar and poses a challenge for Mitt Romney, what's left of the Republican establishment, and not least for Mr. Gingrich himself. We'll see who rises to the occasion.

 

(Snip)

 

As for the GOP establishment, such as it still is, Mr. Gingrich's re-emergence is likely to cause a panic attack. They don't believe he is electable. Our advice would be to relax and let the voters decide. If Mr. Romney can't marshal the wit and nerve to defeat the speaker, then he isn't likely to defeat Mr. Obama.

 

If GOP office-holders had a better candidate, they should have rallied behind one to get into the race, and they still could if the primary contest drags on without a clear winner. In any case the record of elected GOP politicians in picking nominees is hardly inspiring. Rank-and-file voters are likely to have a clearer sense of what the country needs. On to Florida.

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Yes, I agree. Santorum is one of those guys that is cut out to be Robin...not Batman. Doesn't mean he isn't heroic...just not lead hero.

There is nothing wrong with wingman. ;)

 

A couple of questions...

What do people think Santorum has to get in Fla in order to remain viable?

 

What do people think Newt has to get in order to remain viable?

 

(I'm assuming a Romney win in Fla) What if he wins by 5-6%? Does he remain viable?

 

I guess I'm asking the expectations question.

 

At this point, my expectation is that Gingrich is going to win in Florida. He is up by 8 points in the the ARG poll and 9 points in the Rasmussen poll (both taken after SC). Realclearpolitics has him leading by .7 points in Florida overall. Yesterday's Gallup poll had Obama beating Romney 50-48. It had Obama beating Gingrich...50-48.

 

I think to remain viable, Santorum needs to finish second or better. If he finishes below Paul, he's done.

Romney needs to win to remain viable. If he loses to Gingrich again, he's close to done. If he loses by double digits, I don't seem him overcoming Newt's momentum.

Gingrich needs to finish second or better and within single digits of Romney. Romney has outspent all other candidates 20 to 1 in Florida. If Gingrich loses he can attribute it to being outspent. If Romney loses...what can he blame it on?

 

Having said all that...9 days is an eternity in politics. Who knows what the future has in store for us.

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WSJ: The Gingrich Challenge

A test for Romney, GOP officials, and the former speaker himself.

1/23/21

 

Newt Gingrich's sweeping victory in South Carolina throws the GOP Presidential contest into a useful uproar and poses a challenge for Mitt Romney, what's left of the Republican establishment, and not least for Mr. Gingrich himself. We'll see who rises to the occasion.

 

(Snip)

 

As for the GOP establishment, such as it still is, Mr. Gingrich's re-emergence is likely to cause a panic attack. They don't believe he is electable. Our advice would be to relax and let the voters decide. If Mr. Romney can't marshal the wit and nerve to defeat the speaker, then he isn't likely to defeat Mr. Obama.

 

If GOP office-holders had a better candidate, they should have rallied behind one to get into the race, and they still could if the primary contest drags on without a clear winner. In any case the record of elected GOP politicians in picking nominees is hardly inspiring. Rank-and-file voters are likely to have a clearer sense of what the country needs. On to Florida.

 

That is what started the Tea Party. At what point is the GOP establishment going to realize that rank and file members aren't pleased with what its been doing? I think one of the things helping Gingrich is that elected GOP politicians (and unelected pundits and chattering class) don't like him. At this point, that becomes a plus.

Romney couldn't beat McCain in 2008. McCain couldn't beat Obama. Since then, Obama has inflicted a lot of damage on himself. But has Romney done anything new since 2008? I actually think McCain would have a better chance than Romney of defeating Obama in 2012. I like Romney more than I like McCain. But if they were my only two choices, I'd probably vote for McCain. Actually, unless he picked Palin again, I'd probably just move to the middle of Idaho and cut myself off from the world until 2022.

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Yes, I agree. Santorum is one of those guys that is cut out to be Robin...not Batman. Doesn't mean he isn't heroic...just not lead hero.

There is nothing wrong with wingman. ;)

 

A couple of questions...

What do people think Santorum has to get in Fla in order to remain viable?

 

What do people think Newt has to get in order to remain viable?

 

(I'm assuming a Romney win in Fla) What if he wins by 5-6%? Does he remain viable?

 

I guess I'm asking the expectations question.

 

At this point, my expectation is that Gingrich is going to win in Florida. He is up by 8 points in the the ARG poll and 9 points in the Rasmussen poll (both taken after SC). Realclearpolitics has him leading by .7 points in Florida overall. Yesterday's Gallup poll had Obama beating Romney 50-48. It had Obama beating Gingrich...50-48.

 

 

Given what has happened so far this race..anything can and probably will happen.

 

I think to remain viable, Santorum needs to finish second or better. If he finishes below Paul, he's done.

Romney needs to win to remain viable. If he loses to Gingrich again, he's close to done. If he loses by double digits, I don't seem him overcoming Newt's momentum.

Gingrich needs to finish second or better and within single digits of Romney. Romney has outspent all other candidates 20 to 1 in Florida. If Gingrich loses he can attribute it to being outspent. If Romney loses...what can he blame it on?

 

Having said all that...9 days is an eternity in politics. Who knows what the future has in store for us.

 

I think if he just wins, he's still in trouble, he has to win convincingly in order to reestablish the inevitability meme.

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