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Candidate- Mitt Romney


Geee

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Come on now! There's no call for that kind of language!

 

 

:lol: @Valin

 

I am just trying in my own small way to promote the New Tone of civility that Barack Obama is encouraging everyone to adopt.

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Contentions: For Romney, 24 Hours Can Be a Lifetime

Alana Goodman

1/20/12

 

Mitt Romney’s bad week – which looks like it may get much worse before it’s over – just took another hit from a gloomy Gallup poll. Unlike other recent surveys, which have shown Romney dropping below Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, this one was a poll of national voters (via HotAir):

 

Gallup’s Editor-in-chief Frank Newport appeared on MSNBC to talk about the polling organization’s national tracking poll of the GOP primary race, which is changing rapidly in the last few days of the campaign for South Carolina. Newport said when their new data comes out at 1 pm eastern, “…we’ll see this gap closing more. Romney was up 23 points over Newt Gingrich. Now it will be down about ten points, so clearly things are collapsing.” …

 

“We have seen more movement, more roller coaster kind of effect this year than any other Republican primary in our history of tracking,” Newport said. “I think anything is possible. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility if Romney recovers. We’ll wait and see.”

 

(Snip)

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OOPS ALERT!

 

 

Legal Insurrection: Hell hath no fury like a blogger scorned

William A. Jacobson

1/20/21

 

From the kind folks at BuzzFeed Politics, A Message For Mitt Romney:

 

"Today Mitt Romney left reporters from online outlets (The Huffington Post, Politico, and BuzzFeed) off of his campaign plane....."

 

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Edited by Rheo
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This is a good summary of Romney's path forward after South Carolina by Larry Sabato. Long, but interesting read.

 

Romney’s Coronation: Just Delayed, or Gone Awry?

 

snipAfter South Carolina, though, there are no guarantees for Romney anywhere; he will have to work hard to beat Gingrich in the Sunshine State. Romney is leading by nearly 19 percentage points there according to the RealClearPolitics average, but because of Gingrich’s Palmetto win that lead will almost certainly be cut dramatically this week. Remember: Gingrich led in that very same poll average in Florida just two weeks ago (see the graph at the link).

 

Going into February, Romney — on paper — would seem to have many advantages. About a quarter of caucus-goers in Nevada in 2008 were Mormon; Romney should do well there, and the other candidates, save Paul, might not even bother contesting it. The major contests looming at the end of the month are primaries in Arizona and Michigan. Arizona is not as conservative as one might think. As the chart shows, its percentage of evangelical and “very conservative” voters (according to 2008’s exit polls) was almost identical to Florida’s — somewhat surprising demographics from Barry Goldwater’s home state. Meanwhile, Romney has deep Michigan roots; his father was governor and he grew up there.

 

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Boston Herald

All goes wrong for Dudley Do-Right

howie_carr.gif?1=1 By Howie Carr

Sunday, January 22, 2012 - Updated 5 hours ago

 

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Mitt Romney just can’t close the deal.

 

e54648_012112romneynl38.jpg

COMING UP SHORT: GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, who came in second place in South Carolina’s primary yesterday, speaks last night at the South Carolina State Fairgrounds in Columbia, S.C.

 

Twelve days ago, Mitt was the toast of the GOP. This morning he’s just toast.

 

Twelve days ago, he’d won a “historic” two in a row — Iowa and New Hampshire — and he had a double-digit lead in South Carolina.

 

Now it turns out Mitt didn’t even win Iowa.

 

Mitt had the governor of South Carolina with him, but Newt Gingrich had the two real power brokers — Juan Williams of Fox News and, more importantly, John King of CNN. Those were his foils in the two South Carolina debates.

 

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The Republican primary voters have this dream of a snarling Newt disemboweling Barack Obama in the debates this fall. Talk about myths. How many debates is Barack going to agree to? Two maybe, tops, and both of them will be MSNBC-style — “Mr. Gingrich, when did you stop beating your first ex-wife?” Follow-up: “When you did you stop beating your second ex-wife?”

 

To the “Jersey Shore” MTV crowd, Newt would come across as a fat, nasty, pasty old man. They’re not going to realize what a boob Barack is, because they’re boobs, too.

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There are two myths that establishment politicians perpetuate to try and force their choice on the electorate. Myth 1 is that the independent vote is what determines election outcomes. Myth 2 is that the youth vote changes the outcome of national elections.

 

"Independent" voters are not some open-minded group of interested observers waiting to be swayed left or right by the candidate of either party who appeals to them most during that voting cycle. Data shows that independent voters are just as partisan as voters registered to a specific party. Independent voters who traditionally vote democrat almost always vote democrat, and independent voters who traditionally vote republican almost always vote republican. So forget the independent vote. They are simply republican/democrat voters who have taped over their party affiliation.

 

Young voters generally don't turnout. In the 2008 election with the very cool and different Obama luring youth to the voting booth, youth turnout spiked 2% from 2004. Most of that spike was black youth who voted greater than 95% for Obama. Young voters make a lot of noise and then fail to follow through. They are attracted to candidates like Ralph Nader, Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich because those candidates are cooly outside the mainstream. Before the actual election, each of those candidates consistently win internet polls, bumper sticker wars, and political rally disruptor contests. But on the big day, they don't even register at the ballot box.

 

Yet, for some reason, establishment politicians bend over back wards to compromise almost every principle they cling to in order to attract young and independent voters. What a waste. Last election we ended up with McCain because he supposedly had such a strong appeal with independents and crossover dems. The net result was a 1.5% decrease in Republican voter turnout, while Obama enjoyed a 2.5% increase in democrat turnout. In the last several election cycles, registered democrats have outnumbered registered republicans by almost 30%. Republicans still win office because republican voters tend to turnout more reliably at the ballot box. Republicans win when registered republicans are fired up by their candidate. Democrats win when republicans are not fired up by their candidate. What do George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, and John McCain have in common other than losing in a general election? They attempted to win elections by appealing to "independent" voters and failed to motivate voters in their own party.

 

Mitt Romney has failed to motivate republican voters. He's tried hard. But he has failed. A majority of republican voters just can't get excited by him. That leaves Santorum and Gingrich. Which one of those two is going to appeal to the youth vote? Probably neither. Who cares. The youth vote doesn't win elections for republicans. Which one of those two is going to appeal to independent voters? Probably neither. Who cares. Independent voters aren't and will probably vote in the same pattern they always have. Which one of those two is going to fire up republican voters? Right now, it is definitely Gingrich. And neither of them will win a general election without a fired up republican voting base. If Santorum wants to be the nominee, he needs to do something quickly to fire up republican voters. I'm not sure he's capable. Especially while he stands in Newt's shadow. He's got time, but not much. Right now, he's the Lamar Alexander of the primary season. That does not win elections.

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IMHO no matter which of the three prevail, there WILL be a fired up Republican base. They realize that there is too much at stake to stay home this time and ABO is what is on there mind. Sure, there are some that feel strongly for some of the candidates, but they feel stronger about our opponent. The only ones this may not be true for are the Paulbots. There are even Dems that are waiting the outcome. If it someone they can live with they also have had enough of this president that they will be motivated enough to vote for him. If not they will stay home, which is almost as good.

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I tend to think you're right, shoutGeee, and I really, REALLY hope so.

 

I hope so too. But thinking back to Clinton in '96, I was certain a Republican would win because Clinton was so bad. Turns out Clinton hatred wasn't enough to propel Dole into office. And I'm sure the Dems felt the same way in 2004. Bush HAD to lose. Not because Kerry was so good, but because they believed Bush was such a disaster. Bush walked away with it. I don't think a side wins because people vote against someone. I side only wins when people are voting for someone.

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