Frank Luntz: If the polls are wrong again this time, my profession is finished

[Valin]

Hot Air

AllahpunditPosted

October 23, 2020

No profession is ever really “finished” after a catastrophic failure. Ask someone who opposed the Iraq war. They’ll talk your ear off about how cheerleaders for the invasion ended up failing upward in the foreign policy establishment or landing softly as “wise men” commentators in American media.

Polling won’t disappear either if it misjudges Trump’s chances again this time. Everyone will pay *some* attention to it in 2024. But the industry, and satellite industries like election modelers, will never fully regain their credibility. It’s one thing to underestimate Trump by three points in 2016, a year when you had no inkling of how strong his support might be among working-class white voters. It’s another thing to recalibrate for that, conclude that he’s trailing this time by eight or nine points instead of three — and then miss gain.

(Snip)

Modelers like Nate Silver have been reminding fans lately on social media that although Trump is currently a longshot to win (a 12 percent chance in FiveThirtyEight’s model), it’s not that long a shot. Which is true — he has about a one in eight chance if Silver’s model is right, not a one in a thousand chance. You wouldn’t write off an eight-to-one underdog in a football game. But there’s a note of anxiety in those reminders, especially since Silver’s 2016 model famously wasn’t as bullish on Hillary as some of his competitors’ models were. There were people who gave Clinton a 99 percent chance of victory; FiveThirtyEight gave her a more reasonable 71 percent chance. Silver reminds readers of that periodically too, that all the taunts about having gotten it so wrong fall a bit flat when you consider that he gave Trump a better than one in four chance of winning. Flip a coin twice and call heads or tails on each. By Election Day 2016, Trump’s odds at the presidency were better than yours were of getting both calls right, at least according to FiveThirtyEight.

(Snip)

[Geee]

“Conservative” Pollster Frank Luntz’s Damning Email to Hunter Biden Was Just Released By Steve Bannon

 

Frank Luntz's Interesting Response to Revelation of Email Exchange He Allegedly Had With Hunter Biden

Well, Hunter and Joe aren’t the only ones going down in a ball of flames thanks to Hunter’s “Hard Drive From Hell.”

Well, Hunter and Joe aren’t the only ones going down in a ball of flames thanks to Hunter’s “Hard Drive From Hell.”

The so-called “conservative” pollster Frank Luntz, who is also a well-known “Trump hater” was just outed as a total and complete fraud, thanks to Hunter’s emails.

Well, Hunter and Joe aren’t the only ones going down in a ball of flames thanks to Hunter’s “Hard Drive From Hell.”

The so-called “conservative” pollster Frank Luntz, who is also a well-known “Trump hater” was just outed as a total and complete fraud, thanks to Hunter’s emails.

The so-called “conservative” pollster Frank Luntz, who is also a well-known “Trump hater” was just outed as a total and complete fraud, thanks to Hunter’s emails.

[Valin]

2 hours ago, Geee said:

“Conservative” Pollster Frank Luntz’s Damning Email to Hunter Biden Was Just Released By Steve Bannon

 

Frank Luntz's Interesting Response to Revelation of Email Exchange He Allegedly Had With Hunter Biden

Well, Hunter and Joe aren’t the only ones going down in a ball of flames thanks to Hunter’s “Hard Drive From Hell.”

Well, Hunter and Joe aren’t the only ones going down in a ball of flames thanks to Hunter’s “Hard Drive From Hell.”

The so-called “conservative” pollster Frank Luntz, who is also a well-known “Trump hater” was just outed as a total and complete fraud, thanks to Hunter’s emails.

Well, Hunter and Joe aren’t the only ones going down in a ball of flames thanks to Hunter’s “Hard Drive From Hell.”

The so-called “conservative” pollster Frank Luntz, who is also a well-known “Trump hater” was just outed as a total and complete fraud, thanks to Hunter’s emails.

The so-called “conservative” pollster Frank Luntz, who is also a well-known “Trump hater” was just outed as a total and complete fraud, thanks to Hunter’s emails.

 

He may still be correct about this.

 

I recall reading an article years ago by Michael Barone(?) Saying National Polling was on its last legs.

[Valin]

Related..............

Oct. 24 2020

Democrats FAIL To Notice Polls Make NO SENSE, Trump Crushing Early Vote In Major Battleground States. Polls show weird numbers in states like Montana where Trump is down 13 points from 2016.

Current polls show that Texas is the closest race in the nation in terms of Trump's lead but early voting data suggests that he is going to crush it there.

Could it be that the polls are substantially worse now than in 2016?

One thing Democrats and the Joe Biden campaign have missed is that Republicans and Trump have been registering new voters like crazy suggesting a larger turnout than the polls are tracking.

Or perhaps voter habits and COVID altered the landscape to such a degree no one really knows what will happen.