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Will Nuclear North Korea Survive 2018?


Geee

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north-korea-nuclear-power-may-or-may-not-survive-2018

Given several rapidly developing geopolitical factors, North Korea may look much different by the end of the new year.

F
or good or evil, we may see radical changes in North Korea in 2018.
The beefed-up United Nations sanctions by midyear could lead to widespread North Korean hunger, as well as the virtual end of the country’s industry and transportation.


In the past, the West had called off such existential sanctions and rushed in cash and humanitarian aid on news of growing starvation. Would it now if the bleak alternative was a lunatic’s nuclear missile possibly striking San Diego or Seattle?
To survive an unending trade embargo — and perhaps to avoid a coup — Kim Jong Un would likely either have to recalibrate his nuclear program or consider using it.
China has always been unwilling to give up pit bull North Korea as its client. The Kim dynasty has proved especially useful over the past 30 years for aggravating and distracting the Chinese communist government’s archenemy, Japan, and its chief rival, the United States.
Yet China is now worried that the Donald Trump administration is as unfathomable as the prior Obama administration’s strategic patience doctrine was predictable.
Beijing’s sponsorship of the rogue nuclear regime in North Korea could increasingly become bad business, given global anxieties over the many possible trajectories of North Korea nuclear missiles.

What are some likely scenarios for 2018?:snip:

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1 hour ago, nickydog said:

There are no good options.   :blink:

 

In 90% (at a minimum) of cases in foreign affairs this is the case. IMO the secret is to convince China (and Russia) that it is in their best interests to make North Korea 1. play nice or 2 make NK go away.

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1 hour ago, Valin said:

 

In 90% (at a minimum) of cases in foreign affairs this is the case. IMO the secret is to convince China (and Russia) that it is in their best interests to make North Korea 1. play nice or 2 make NK go away.

Good luck with that:rolleyes:

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Geee

Diodn't say it was gonna happen...just that this is the best way to handle it.....w/o large numbers of people dying, and another war in Asia....and the world economy taking a big hit.

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Draggingtree

3/6/2018

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 9:00 am

Good news, everyone!

 

North Korea has agreed to discuss giving up nuclear weapons! This represents a great milestone in the history of efforts to address the North Korean nuclear problem, and a vindication for Donald Trump and his policy of regularly antagonizing and denigrating Kim Jong-un. Here’s the headline, detailing North Korea’s commitment to freeze and gradually dismantle its program:   :snip:  http://patterico.com/2018/03/06/north-korea-totally-going-to-denuclearize-this-time/

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Draggingtree

North Korea Said It Will Suspend Nuclear Programs and Missile Tests During U.S. Talk

 
Posted by Mary Chastain    March 6, 2018 at 11:00am

Who’s believing this? Anyone?

I woke up this morning to numerous news alerts that told me North Korea is open to talks with the US about denuclearization. I rolled my eyes because does anyone honestly believe this?

Yeah, I don’t especially after I dug deeper. North Korea said it is open to talks “and that it would suspend all nuclear and missile tests while it is engaged in such talks.”

(more…)   :snip: 

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