It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention

[Draggingtree]

:

2016 ELECTION 2:34 PM APR 1, 2016

It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention

By NATE SILVER

At the prediction market Betfair on Friday morning, bettors put Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican presidential nomination at 56 percent. That’s down a fair bit — Trump had been hovering at about 70 percent after his win in Arizona (and loss in Utah) last week. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a contested convention according to bettors has considerably increased. There’s now a 63 percent chance¹ that the convention in Cleveland will require multiple ballots, according to Betfair.

 

In other words, the markets are now betting on a contested convention. Not just a near-miss, where the nomination is resolved at some point between the last day of GOP primaries June 7 and the start of the convention July 18, but the thing that political journalists dream about: a full-blown contested convention where it takes multiple ballots to determine the Republican nominee.

 

Here’s the thing, though: Those markets don’t make a lot of sense. If you really think the chance of a multi-ballot convention is 63 percent,

 

[Draggingtree]

April 2, 2016

Are Trump delegates having second thoughts?

By Rick Moran

This story in Politico about Trump delegates willing to bolt from the candidate on the second ballot of a contested convention will be dismissed by many Trump partisans as anti-Trump propaganda.

 

Indeed, it may be. But if we've seen any weakness from Trump in the past two weeks, it is the lack of political acumen from his team when it comes to the real nuts and bolts of politics – such as choosing delegates who are rock-solid supporters. The controversies in Louisiana, South Carolina, and North Dakota are just the tip of the iceberg. The fact is, Trump may be winning more votes than Cruz at the ballot box, but the incompetence of his campaign aides in turning those votes into loyal delegates is painfully obvious.

 

If Trump heads into the convention without the magic number of 1,237, already more than a hundred delegates are poised to break with him on a second ballot, according to interviews with dozens of delegates, delegate candidates, operatives and party leaders.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/04/are_trump_delegates_having_second_thoughts.html