Nigeria: This Is No Joke

[Valin]

Strategy Page:

April 1, 2016:

 

In the northeast (Borno state) the army has completed clearing Boko Haram out of two of the remaining three large areas Boko Haram still controlled. At its peak in late 2014 Boko Haram controlled over 50,000 square kilometers of Borno, an area nearly twice the size of Belgium. Boko Haram has now lost over 90 percent of that. Confirmation of that came in a March 24th video from Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. This a video showed up on the Internet, the first such video since January 2015. While earlier videos had been optimistic, bombastic and generally threatening in this latest one Shekau admitted defeat and to denied recent claims that he had been killed. He looked thin and dejected and urged his remaining followers to fight on. Shekau did not mention ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant), which Boko Haram was now supposed to be part of, but displayed the original Boko Haram flag. The video looked crude and hastily produced. In contrast his last video showed him claiming victory and demonstrating defiance in the face of government efforts to defeat Boko Haram. For once the government and Boko Haram are in agreement, that Boko Haram power was broken. There is still disagreement over whether Boko Haram will be completely gone by the end of 2016. The corruption and bad government that triggered the creation of Boko Haram after 2001 are still present. There is an anti-corruption movement gaining strength throughout Nigeria right now and the new president is part of it. Yet old habits die hard and it will be a while before the northeast is free of Boko Haram type violence and the conditions that create it. Meanwhile the government believes Boko Haram will be gone as a widespread threat by mid-2016.

 

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Niger, Chad and Cameroon continue having problems with Boko Haram groups still operating on both sides of these international borders. Nigerian troops are cooperating with their counterparts on the other side of the border to find and destroy these groups. Leading the current offensive against Boko Haram is an 8,700 man international force comprised of troops from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria. Meanwhile Cameroon is launching its own “final offensive” against areas adjacent to Borno State in northern Cameroon. The border area (the Mandera Mountains) is one of the few areas where some Boko Haram are known to be hiding out. The other two areas are parts of the Sambisa forest in northern Borno State and further north along the coast of Lake Chad. The international force is now concentrating on all three areas while national forces work the Cameroon, Niger and Chad sides of the border. Cameroon in particular wants to stop the Boko Haram suicide bomber attacks carried out by brainwashed female captives. Some 80 percent of the recent suicide bomb attacks have used these young women.

 

At the moment most Nigerians are not concerned about Boko Haram but rather the chronic and worsening fuel shortage. In 2012 the government tried to eliminate fuel subsidies but had to restore them by 2015 because of widespread anger and unrest. The core problem here is corruption and the need to import refined fuel rather than build refineries (or repairing those that already exist) and make all the fuel in Nigeria. The current situation is made worse by the low price of oil and the shortage of foreign exchange to buy the fuel. There is still the problem with decades old subsidies on fuel. When these were eliminated at the start of 2012 the price for most fuels doubled, with petrol (gasoline) going from 45 cents per liter ($1.70 per gallon) to at least 94 cents per liter ($3.50 per gallon). The subsidies consumed $8 billion a year, about a quarter of government spending. The fuel subsidy cuts caused demonstrations and violence from the start but the government did not back off at first. While the subsidies were still a financial burden and source of corruption they were restored in part because corrupt politicians missed the bribes. Then as now the companies getting the government contracts to import and distribute the diesel and other refined fuels kick back some of their profits to politicians who provided the contracts. The subsidies were also plundered by politicians.

 

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[SrWoodchuck]

@Valin! For the most part, great news.

 

The priest at St. Anthony's Hospital, Fr. Charles Anedo, (where I volunteer), is from southern Nigeria. He visits his home twice a year. We've had some conversations about the problems there, and he said the dangerous areas are in the north, and that the new Nigerian leader ( a Muslim) was a good thing, as he didn't appear to be corrupt. Hope that continues.

[Valin]

@SrWoodchuck

 

Corruption and/or tribalism is a large part of the problem there...and in many other places.

[Valin]

Meanwhile back at the ranch......

Islamic State West Africa reaffirms loyalty to al Baghdadi
Caleb Weiss
April 2, 2016

The Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), which is more commonly known by its former name Boko Haram, reaffirmed its loyalty to both its local leader Abubakar Shekau and the overall leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.

In the video, a spokesman for ISWA began by talking about the “steadfastness of the monotheists” and that the “enemies of Allah the Almighty hold conferences and meetings to come up with a solution for the hole into which they fell, thinking that they can rescue their proxies and allies from the assault of the soldiers of the Caliphate,” according to a translation from the SITE Intelligence Group. He goes on to say that ISWA will inflict harm on their enemies in “Nigeria, the Niger border, Cameroon, or Chad” which have all seen attacks perpetrated by the ISWA.

The spokesman then lambasted statements released by the Nigerian government saying that “victory is imminent” over the jihadist group. “Neither the disbelievers nor their apostate henchmen were able to extinguish the light of Allah, so they rushed to use trumpets of hypocrisy from among media personnel and journalists to achieve what they can of fake victory.”

Nigerian officials often comment on the fight against ISWA by saying that its defeat is within a few months or that the jihadists have already been “technically defeated.”


In the face of these claims, ISWA continues to mount a deadly insurgency in the country. While a coordinated military offensive by Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon has targeted ISWA strongholds in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, the jihadist group has maintained the ability to launch coordinated attacks and assaults throughout the region. It has shown that it has retained the ability to strike in large cities, like Maiduguri, with these coordinated assaults and suicide bombings. Many of these bombings make use of women and girls, with at least 105 being used since June 2014.

 

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