What to Expect from Today’s Elections

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What to Expect from Today’s Elections

By DANIEL LARISON • March 15, 2016, 11:50 AM

 

Trump appears to be on track for at least three more wins in the states that vote today. He has commanding leads in North Carolina and Florida, and he has a smaller lead in Illinois. The best chance for a Cruz win is in Missouri, where there has been almost no polling and where socially conservative/evangelical candidates have done well in the previous cycles. Santorum won Missouri in 2012, and in 2008 Huckabee finished in second close behind McCain, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Cruz prevailed. Kasich leads in the RCP average in Ohio by a few points, and I assume he will hang on to that lead tonight.

 

Florida, North Carolina, and Illinois have the largest delegate hauls today. North Carolina allocates proportionally, but Trump is polling well enough he will probably take almost half of the state’s 72 delegates while Cruz should get about a quarter of them. In Illinois, most of the state’s 69 delegates are directly elected by Congressional district. Josh Putnam explains how this could affect the outcome: