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DES MOINES REGISTER/BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL: STILL TRUMP


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1/31/2016

Filed under: General — Dana @ 7:44 am

[guest post by Dana]

 

The Des Moines Register released polling results of a selection of likely Republican caucusgoers:

 

Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

 

“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll. Scissors-32x32.png


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Don’t Underestimate Trump’s Ground Game

By Steve Berman | February 1, 2016, 08:40am

 

Political types tend to think inside their own boxes, and then wonder why their predictions are wrong when the box collapses.

The latest Ann Selzer / DMR poll shows Trump with a 7 point lead, and I’ve said that it would take a miracle for the projected 150-200 thousand turnout that would produce those numbers.

 

Winter Storm Kayla could dump several inches on Des Moines and northwest Iowa. That will hurt attendance in areas where voters have to make a difficult drive and then get home in the snow.

 

These events would appear to play to Cruz, who has had an incredible organization on the ground in Iowa.

 

Based on a net loss of Republican voter registrations in 2016 over 2015, and 2012’s record 122,000 turnout for the caucuses, I was thinking that 125-130 thousand would be a gracious plenty, especially with the weather predictions. My friend Brandon Finnigan of Decision Desk thought that 135-140 thousand is plausible.Scissors-32x32.pnghttp://theresurgent.com/dont-underestimate-trumps-ground-game/

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I have 4 words for the T-Bots, and for that matter to the Talking Heads

 

Michael....Huckabee....Richard....Santorum

 

Not quite the same reasons they won in Iowa as Trump, if he wins. But certainly one state does not make the winner.

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