The Mother of Peace

[Valin]

National Review:

What Obama doesn’t understand about human nature.

Victor Davis Hanson

December 29, 2015

 

Deterrence makes someone not do something. A parent promotes good teen behavior not just by providing cars and smartphones, but also by the explicit specter of graduated punishments that an adolescent does not wish to repeat, and thus chooses instead to abide by the house rules.

 

In terms of world affairs, a clear display of overwhelming military strength, and the real probability of being willing to use it, remind would-be aggressors not to start stupid conflicts — given that the possibility of winning something through war is overshadowed by the risk of losing far more. A world where everyone knows the unspoken rules as well as the moral and material relative strength and weakness of the various nations is a safer place for all involved.

 

(Snip)

 

President Obama lost the power of deterrence through a variety of unfortunate pronouncements and policies. False deadlines to Iran, false red lines to Syria, and false step-over lines to Russia have all rendered the currency of U.S. admonitions worthless. If Obama were now to lay down a red line for ISIS should it come close to entering Baghdad, would anyone take that threat seriously?

 

Deterrence also hinges on emotions. Teddy Roosevelt’s legendary advice to speak softly and carry a big stick named both halves of a successful deterrent posture: not to unduly excite thugs with cheap language, and always to be demonstrably better armed than your enemies just in case.

 

The inverse — speak loudly and cheaply while carrying a visibly tiny stick — is dangerous. When Obama talks trash about Putin behaving like a class cut-up or being hung up on macho shtick, or when he uses his accustomed sports metaphors to write off the threat of ISIS, or brags that he “does not bluff,” the world at first anticipates that such tough-guy bluster is backed by American muscularity.

 

But when the rhetoric increases, even as the likelihood of consequent action lessens, deterrence is lost. Ridicule ensues. “Lead from behind” in Libya, coupled with the disaster at Benghazi and its cover-up, only added to the impression abroad that something was now quite different in Washington, and thus in the world’s balance of power as well.

 

The world is full of thugs and creeps who are kept from spreading their thuggishness and creepiness by their fears of confronting overwhelming power. Vast cuts in our military spending – even as Obama added $10 trillion to the national debt – encouraged a global caricature of the U.S. as a soft, entitlement-addicted society in which increased subsidies for the electorate were deemed more important than an overwhelmingly powerful fleet of planes, ships, and ground assets. When Obama promised to end “two wars,” few here or abroad assumed that he meant to lose both, although accepting defeat is always the quickest way to cease fighting.

 

(Snip)