Do Government Shutdowns Hurt Republicans?

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Ricochet: Do Government Shutdowns Hurt Republicans?

MoltoVivace December 26, 2015 . 28 COMMENTS

Conventional wisdom suggests Republicans will be harmed electorally by government shutdowns. Is there any evidence for such a claim?

• The government was shut down eight times under Ronald Reagan, the first in the fall of 1981 and the last at the end of 1987. In those six years, Reagan won a massive electoral landslide; the Republicans kept the Senate in two out of three elections, and failed to take the House in three of three elections.
• Bush (41) vetoed a continuing resolution, and the government was shut down for five days in 1990. Democrats held the Senate and the House for the next two elections. Bush lost his 1992 reelection bid.
• The government was shut down twice under Clinton, both times in 1995. The Republicans, having retaken both Chambers in 1994, kept them both for five straight elections. During that time they won two Presidential victories.
• The government was most recently shut down under Obama in 2013. The following year, the Republicans kept the House and won the Senate.