Afghanistan: The North Remembers

[Valin]

Strategy Page:

July 21, 2015:

 

In the capital the government allows the police and intelligence agencies to publicize many of the Islamic terrorist attacks they prevented. There were a lot more of these recently because of Ramadan (a month long fasting period for Moslems) events. Islamic terrorists consider it more rewarding (from a publicity and religious standpoint) to murder lots of people during Ramadan. Despite the efforts of the Afghan security forces some of these attacks occur, and they are particularly unpopular. While in some countries these attacks intimidate in Afghanistan they tend to make people eager for revenge. That’s why Afghanistan is such a violent place but also why Islamic terrorists have a hard time because the locals come after them. The government also finds it is good for morale (of the security forces and the general population) to publicize attacked that have been foiled, even if this risks providing the enemy with some insight into police methods. In most cases the attack was foiled when someone noted something odd and tipped off the police. Cell phones, the bane of Islamic terrorists in this part of world, have made such tip offs a lot easier, and safer for the tipster.

 

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The government sees great benefits from the possibility that economic sanctions against neighboring Iran might be lifted (because of the recent peace deal). This is particularly attractive to Afghans getting fed up with the rising costs (bribes, theft) of moving imports or exports via Pakistan. The new treaty, if it gets ratified and implemented, means a lot for Afghanistan. For example there is the existing project between Iran and India to expand the port of Chabahar in southeastern Iran. Work here, on the port and new roads and railroads to Afghanistan and Central Asia, are already underway. With the economic freedom of the new treaty Iran has already asked India to expand its investment. While this project hurts Pakistan with regard to Afghan trade (the movement of most Afghan imports and exports) the new treaty enables Iran to go forward with a long-delayed (by sanctions) project to build a natural gas pipeline to Pakistan, as well as electrical power transmission lines. Pakistan is suffering debilitating power shortages and Iran is the most immediate source of help. Some Pakistanis respond to the prospect of losing business by reducing the bribes and thefts and that’s the kind of leverage the Afghans are looking forward to.

 

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Foreign donors are threatening to reduce or halt aid if the Afghans don’t make more progress in dealing with the epic levels of corruption in the country. The government points out that progress has been made. When this corruption problem is actually measured Afghanistan finds that it is one of the most corrupt nations in the world. However, Afghanistan has made some progress in 2014. The year before Afghanistan was in a three way tie with North Korea and Somalia at the bottom of the list of 175 nations surveyed. The latest survey shows North Korea and Somalia still at the bottom together but Afghanistan has moved up to 172. Corruption in this Transparency International Corruption Perception Index is measured on a 1 (most corrupt) to 100 (not corrupt) scale. The two most corrupt nations have a rating of 8 and the least corrupt (Denmark) is 92. African nations are the most corrupt, followed by Middle Eastern ones. In Afghanistan the most lethal aspect of the corruption is how it makes it easier for terrorists to operate in a major city, like Kabul. In a crowded place like that well-funded terrorists can pay off enough people to stay hidden. Foreign donors point out that much of their aid is wasted because of the corruption and their cash is better spent in less corrupt areas. Afghanistan protests that Afghans will suffer if there is less aid. The donors point out that Afghanistan is not alone in that respect and the donors want to use the money where it will do the most good. This provides a very powerful incentive to reduce the corruption. In Afghanistan such incentives often fail because for a long time Afghans have tended to make the wrong choices and blame the results on evil outsiders.

 

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