Ted Cruz’s Analytics-Driven Plan to Steal the Libertarian Vote from Rand

[Valin]

National Review:

Joel Gehrke

June 10, 2015

 

Ted Cruz needs to pick off enough libertarian votes to hobble Rand Paul, and his data-analytics team thinks it has identified a way to begin to do so.

 

The recent fight over the expiration of the Patriot Act provisions that provide the legal basis for the National Security Agency’s controversial phone data-collection program offered a window into each campaign’s strategy. Cruz supported reforming the provisions, while Paul staged a ten-hour filibuster calling for their repeal. Cruz’s camp believes that Paul is overlooking a growing fear of international terrorism among libertarian-leaning voters, and that he erred by pushing to gut the NSA’s program rather than supporting a Patriot Act–reform bill that had already passed the House. It’s one instance of a data-analysis effort that Cruz’s team will use to try to target libertarians and other critical voters in the primaries.

 

Cruz’s campaign has identified about 18,000 Iowans who will support the Texas Republican next year provided they participate in the caucuses, according to Chris Wilson, the director of research and analytics for the presidential hopeful. Wilson claims they have identified another 110,000 Hawkeye voters — over three times the number of people needed to win the state — who could be persuaded to back Cruz, and they have researched what issues most motivate those voters. “Not only do I know their issues, but we are also scoring them on personality type,” he tells National Review.

 

Perhaps surprisingly, Cruz’s team discovered that national security is a prominent and growing concern among libertarian voters. “There is a plurality of libertarians whose top issue is national security today,” Wilson says, pegging the figure in the mid-30s. “Now, I doubt that was the case in 2008. It may not have been even in 2012. But today it is.” Consequently, he believes that Cruz’s support for the USA Freedom Act, which Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell backed begrudgingly after failing to pass a bill reauthorizing the Patriot Act, hit the sweet spot in terms of appealing to libertarians who dislike the NSA but fear ISIS.

 

(Snip)