Rethinking the Asian Century

[Geee]

Washington Examiner:

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been strong bipartisan dedication to the idea that America's future will be written in the Asia-Pacific. The Obama administration has argued the case most forcefully. Hillary Clinton, when she was secretary of state, wrote:

 

"The Asia-Pacific has become a key driver of global politics. Stretching from the Indian subcontinent to the western shores of the Americas, the region spans two oceans — the Pacific and the Indian — that are increasingly linked by shipping and strategy. It boasts almost half the world's population. It includes many of the key engines of the global economy, as well as the largest emitters of greenhouse gases."

 

In theory, the concept of an "Asian Century" — meaning that the world's political and economic center of gravity is shifting to Asia in the 21st century — is correct. One in three people on Earth is Chinese or Indian. Northeast Asia — including China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan — has enjoyed astonishing levels of economic growth since the latter part of the 20th century with booming export sectors and emerging middle-class consumer bases. The global production and supply networks that have taken shape in Asia produce much of what we consume so voraciously in the West. The Northeast Asian countries are also major consumers of energy imported from the Middle East, making them geopolitically important powers.

[Valin]

:

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been strong bipartisan dedication to the idea that America's future will be written in the Asia-Pacific. The Obama administration has argued the case most forcefully. Hillary Clinton, when she was secretary of state, wrote:

 

 

 

Tick, tock — the demographic clock

 

East Asia's rise is the big economic story of the past half century. China's astonishing, explosive growth since the death of Mao Zedong is unique in all economic history; no other country has ever grown that fast for that long. But the future is never a simple extrapolation of past or current trends.

 

Over the past two generations in East Asia, roughly the past generation in Southeast Asia and perhaps the past decade or so in India, development was abetted by what economists call "the demographic dividend," which is the once-only transition from higher to lower fertility levels. During this period, the working age population grows faster than the population as a whole. Not only does this increase the availability of manpower but, with the right policies, can also encourage higher savings and investment rates.

 

But East Asia's demographic dividend has already been cashed and there will be no repeat. Now the region faces increasingly heavy and adverse demographic headwinds

 

________________________________________________________________________________

 

It is not just Asia...Europe, and in particular Russia. If they don't start having babies...lots of babies within 100-200 years there may not be any actual Russians.

 

 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

On a related note:

 

Recall how I keep pushing the idea Hing Of History? That we are in the middle of major changes in human society.