Past Their Expiration Dates

[WestVirginiaRebel]

Weekly Standard:

The consensus across America, and perhaps especially along the I-95 corridor, seems to be that Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton are on a nearly inevitable collision course, with one or the other poised to be declared president-elect on November 8, 2016. At a minimum, they are viewed as the frontrunners—or, in Bush’s case, the co-frontrunner—for their parties’ nominations. At the same time, most Americans don’t seem to view either Bush or Clinton as a particularly fresh, exciting, or desirable candidate or as among the most relevant thinkers, speakers, or actors on the biggest issues of the day.

 

Something, it would seem, has got to give. Either the citizenry will learn to love—or at least to like—the latest iteration of Bush-Clinton, or the two candidates’ aura of inevitability will soon vanish. History suggests that the second scenario is the more likely—for Bush and Clinton are each trying to break a political pattern that has remained intact for more than 150 years.

 

Presidential hopefuls seem to have about a 14-year shelf-life once they acquire a position of national prominence. Jonathan Rauch wrote on this phenomenon a little over a decade ago and credited an unnamed government employee—who he now confirms was George W. Bush speechwriter John McConnell—with having been the first to see this trend. The theory advanced herein is a variation on the one that Rauch wrote about and is based on McConnell’s original insight.

 

With just 5 exceptions, the 38 men in our nation’s history who have been elected to the presidency (as opposed to ascending to it without ever being elected in their own right) have all first been either elected senator, governor, or vice president or appointed cabinet secretary. Four of the 5 exceptions have been commanding generals who were national military heroes: George Washington, Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant, and Dwight Eisenhower. The fifth was Abraham Lincoln, a former House member and the foremost spokesman on the preeminent issue of his day.

 

In other words, Americans seem to have rather specific notions of what jobs they want their presidents to have held before entering the White House, and those requirements have remained surprisingly constant across more than two centuries. (Ben Carson, therefore, appears to have his work cut out for him.)

 

But Americans also seem to want people to move up or move out. At least that’s how things have played out since the Civil War. From the moment someone has first been elected or (in the case of those who become cabinet secretaries) appointed to a presidential steppingstone position, he’s had 14 years to get elected to either the presidency or the vice presidency, or else he’s never been elected president. Since 1860, there have been no exceptions.

________

 

Time to move on.

[Valin]

Something, it would seem, has got to give. Either the citizenry will learn to love—or at least to like—the latest iteration of Bush-Clinton, or the two candidates’ aura of inevitability will soon vanish. History suggests that the second scenario is the more likely—for Bush and Clinton are each trying to break a political pattern that has remained intact for more than 150 years

Aura of inevitability....Riiiight. Jeb Bush's aura of inevitability lasted around 37.8 seconds....at least out here in what I like to call The Real World.