Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Just As Impressive As It Looks

[Valin]

Five Thirty Eight:

Harry Enten

Mar 6 2015

 

Expect Republican Gov. Scott Walker, if he runs for president in 2016, to repeatedly tout the fact that he won election three times in four years in Wisconsin, a purple state. But is Walker’s feat really all that impressive?

 

According to an analysis by The New York Times’ Nate Cohn, it’s not. Cohn argues that Walker’s margin was about what you’d expect given Wisconsin’s relative partisan makeup.¹ You can see this relationship illustrated in this chart showing the 2012 presidential vote against the margin each incumbent governor won or lost by in 2014.

 

 

(Snip)

 

Some conservatives have argued, however, that merely looking at Walker’s margin of victory misses a key point: Walker is really conservative. He implemented conservative policies in a purple state, and he was still re-elected by the margin you’d expect of an average Republican.

 

I tend to agree with this line of thinking.

 

(Snip)

 

Walker may not be more electable than an average Republican, but electability isn’t the only thing that matters. As my colleague Nate Silver pointed out, Republican voters will be looking for a candidate who is both conservative and electable.

 

Will Walker’s balance of the two be enough?

 

(Snip)