The 2016 political environment has shifted

[Geee]

Human Events:

Like it or not, the 2016 presidential race is now well under way. Republican candidates are flocking to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Hillary Clinton, in-between $200,000 speeches at universities, is reported to be in seclusion developing her economic policies.

 

It’s easy to get overwhelmed by minutiae, but sometimes a twist of events turns out to be important, even 12 months away from the first caucuses and primaries. And of course, always keep in mind that most minutiae turn out to be trivial.

 

Amid all this, it’s important to keep in mind changes in the broader political environment — changes which could make this electoral cycle different in some non-trivial way from the small number of electoral cycles in the recent past. I see two broad developments which could make 2016 different.

One is the increasing salience of foreign policy and the increasing discontent with the foreign policies of the Obama administration. This was not the case in the first Obama term, when the president got negative marks on most domestic issues but passing grades on foreign policy.