RIP, “Emerging Democratic Majority”

[Valin]

The American Interest:

The progressive theorist who wrote the book on the “emerging Democratic majority” now believes the country could be seeing an “emerging Republican advantage.” But GOP triumphalists shouldn’t be too quick to rejoice.

Walter Russell Mead

Feb 2 2015

 

As President Obama reminded us in the long-ago high noon of his presidency, “Elections have consequences.” One of the consequences of the Democratic whacking in the midterms is that political analysts are taking another look at the relative standing of the two major parties. In 2008-9 there was a lot of triumphalist Democratic (and despairing Republican) analysis about a long term Democratic majority. The tone is changing now, and analysts are working to understand why the GOP dominates Congress and state governments in a way that hasn’t been seen since the 1920s.

 

The most substantive rethink so far comes from John Judis, one of the clearest, best-informed, and least sentimental thinkers on the American left today. The man who predicted an “emerging Democratic majority” would rule American politics for the foreseeable future now sees an “emerging Republican advantage” in American politics. In a piece of solid analysis in the National Journal, John Judis argues that the Democrats are losing support among not only the white working class, but also the growing American “middle class”—college graduates without postgraduate degrees who tend to work in offices and make between $50,000 and $100,000. Many Democratic operatives and strategists have adopted Judis’s book The Emerging Democratic Majority as the guide to political success. The view expressed in the book—that the minority and youth vote would buoy the fortunes of the Democratic party—is clearly influential with the current Administration and with many Democratic candidates who have adopted identity politics as a key to victory.

 

But now the facts have changed, and Judis is taking another look......(Snip)

 

 

Republican triumphalists, however, would be wise to treat the new (and very judicious and nuanced) Judis with caution. As Sean Trende has argued, and Judis himself acknowledges in the piece, the concept of “permanent realignments” is overdone. In politics, coalitions rise and fall and break up and reform, and reality is always going to be more complicated and unpredictable than “permanent realignment” models would suggest. The future may not belong to some permanently realigned Republican coalition, but Judis’s analysis suggests that skepticism towards the social democratic project is not going anywhere—and may be far stronger and more resilient than progressives thought. That said, American politics remains one of the most complicated systems on Planet Earth, and independent minded citizens of this country can and will surprise even the shrewdest of analysts with their creative responses to the changing challenges and conditions they face.

 

 

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Also See Michael Barone

 

[SrWoodchuck]

@Valin

 

Which is why the progressives are maintaining a focus on Ferguson fueled folly. They must keep Democratic black plantation slaves voting the right way....along with any self-hating American Jews.....and ignorant LOFO-MOFO's needing to keep their EBT goodies.

 

It's their core constituency that is fraying around the edges.....and now that Republicans control both houses....stealing from the US Treasury to give to Dem 1%'ers redistributing liberated funds to Commie Crony Kapitalists....is in jeopardy.

[Valin]

@Valin

 

 

 

It's their core constituency that is fraying around the edges.....and now that Republicans control both houses....For now.

 

 

I can think of 3 times the meme was this is the end of the Republican Party & 2 for the Democratic party.

 

I suspect there are those inside the Democratic party working to bring the Party back toward the center. At least I hope and pray so.

[SrWoodchuck]

 

@Valin

 

 

 

It's their core constituency that is fraying around the edges.....and now that Republicans control both houses....For now.

 

 

I can think of 3 times the meme was this is the end of the Republican Party & 2 for the Democratic party.

 

I suspect there are those inside the Democratic party working to bring the Party back toward the center. At least I hope and pray so.

 

 

@Valin

 

Yeah? I think it would take mass electro-convulsive therapy.....and as we all know......that means energy from a coal fired plant....which they despise.