East Asia's Population 'Death Spiral'

[Valin]

Around Asia:

Gordon G. Chang

Jan. 6 2015

 

In 2014, Japan experienced the lowest birthrate ever, the fourth-straight year of record low births. There were 9,000 fewer Japanese born last year than in 2013, according to Health Ministry statistics.

 

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As Adomanis notes, “Since 1973, Japan has not had a single year in which its fertility rate was high enough for population stability.”

 

Japan’s total fertility rate—essentially the number of children born to each woman—is 1.4, well below the 2.1 needed for replacement. Japan’s low rate, however, is not exceptional for its region. China’s TFR, despite state media claims, is probably 1.4 as well. South Korea’s rate is 1.3. Hong Kong’s is at 1.2 but falls to 1.0 or lower if mainland women are excluded. Taiwan’s is 1.1. And what is Macau’s? That’s 0.9.

 

Yes, Japan is a “nation on suicide watch,” but so is much of the rest of East Asia. Once demographic trends are baked into a society—as they are in Japan and the rest of its neighborhood—governments can do little to change patterns. State incentives usually do no more than accelerate births that would have occurred anyway. As is said with only a tinge of exaggeration, “demography is destiny.”

 

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As Thomas PM Barnett says the 4 2 1 problem 4 grandparents 2 parents 1 child to rule them all.