Thoughts on the P5+1 Negotiations with Tehran

[Valin]

National Review/The Corner:

Daniel Pipes

November 28, 2014

 

The November 24 deadline came and went for an agreement between the powers and the Islamic Republic of Iran; on that date, they managed only to extend the existing interim deal for another seven months. The ayatollah crowed and U.S. senators stewed. Looking beyond these responses, the current situation spurs several thoughts:

 

If one assumes, as I do, that the apocalyptically minded Iranian leadership will do everything it can to acquire the Bomb, then economic sanctions only serve to slow its course, not to stop it. Put more forcefully, the debate over sanctions is peripheral and even diversionary. The arcane financial and scientific minutiae of the negotiations tend to bury the only discussion that really matters – whether or not some government will use force to reverse the nuclear program.

 

That said, should the 114th Congress pass legislation with a veto-proof majority, this would be an unprecedented blow against Barack Obama and would presumably serve as a low-water mark of his presidency. But this signal event for American domestic politics is unlikely to affect the Iranian program.

 

(Snip)

[Cyber_Liberty]

What do you think, @Valin? I think all the countries are going to wring their hands and fret, while Iran stalls the "negotiations" until it completes a couple of bombs. The hand-wringers seem to think it will be just like N. Korea getting a bomb, and I think Iran will be happy to disabuse them of that notion the first chance they get.

 

So here's the question: Does the first nuke go to the Great Satan or to the Little Satan? Or both?

[Valin]

What do you think, @Valin? I think all the countries are going to wring their hands and fret, while Iran stalls the "negotiations" until it completes a couple of bombs. The hand-wringers seem to think it will be just like N. Korea getting a bomb, and I think Iran will be happy to disabuse them of that notion the first chance they get.

 

So here's the question: Does the first nuke go to the Great Satan or to the Little Satan? Or both?

 

Or does "The Little Satan" take action on their own? 2 things to remember 1. The Saudis have (quietly) given the Israelis permission to use their air space to hit Iran, 2 The IDF has 2 missile subs sitting at Eilat they can be in position in a matter of days...if not hours.

[Cyber_Liberty]

I wonder if Iran cares even a little about Mutually Assured Destruction?

[Valin]

Ayatollah and Israel Agree: Iran Unhurt by Status Quo

Nov. 28 2014

 

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Grand Ayatollah Khamanei, has shared his opinion on the most recent round of negotiations for the first time via his twitter account and in a speech quoted on his website. As the New York Times reports:

Insofar as the Ayatollah thinks that the West’s economic and diplomatic levers can’t bring Iran to heel, he’s in unusual agreement with two of Iran’s most bitter foes: Israel and Israel’s bi-partisan supporters in the U.S. Senate. The Washington Post quotes an interview given by Israel’s Intelligence Minister, Yuval Steinitz, saying: “The pressure on Iran was strong, but not enough. You have to increase the economic pressure to get better results.” While a number of Senators stopped short of immediately demanding new sanctions when negotiations were extended on Monday, these new comments from Netanyahu’s government have emboldened what the Post calls a “a bipartisan juggernaut of senior senators” to push for new sanctions against Iran.

 

The odd men out in this consensus—those who think that further rounds of negotiations will yield a viable result—are the Obama Administration and allied Western European diplomats. The Wall Street Journal quotes French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius: “On the question of limiting [iran’s] enriching capacity—very complicated discussions—I found there had been a certain movement…There is a will to find an agreement I hadn’t felt in the past.” The White House, for its part, is launching a “full court press” against new sanctions in talks with the Senatorial “juggernaut” and interest groups in an effort to keep this round of talks alive.

(Snip)

[Cyber_Liberty]

We're in a heap of trouble.

[Valin]

Extending Extensions
The ‘complex’ negotiations with Iran.
REUEL MARC GERECHT

Dec 8, 2014, Vol. 20, No. 13

 

Predictably, President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have decided to extend again the Joint Plan of Action, the interim nuclear deal they concluded in November 2013. Unlike the last extension, which was for four months, this one is for seven months; the “political” parts of the deal, Secretary of State John Kerry assures us, should be done by March, while further “technical and drafting” details may take until July.

 

This is an odd situation: Obama agreed to the first, shorter extension last July, when little progress on the big issues had been made. Yet after 10 rounds of negotiations and numerous side meetings, in which, per Secretary Kerry, “progress was indeed made on some of the most vexing challenges that we face,” we now need a longer extension? This is necessary, the secretary suggests, because the great progress made is just so “complex” that it requires, as he put it, an “incredible amount of rigorous technical analysis of concepts.”

 

Let us suggest a different narrative. More time is required for more complex negotiations because the Obama administration continues to make concessions to the Iranians that it attempts to justify with technical alchemy. Let us look at centrifuges, perhaps the hardest “technical” issue.

 

(Snip)

[clearvision]

I wonder if Iran cares even a little about Mutually Assured Destruction?

 

Certainly not with our current administration (I just realized how hard it is to call them an administration).

[Cyber_Liberty]

Ohaha/s not the one they should be worried about...