Expect the unexpected: 5 possible Oct. surprises

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The Hill:

And almost every election cycle, a major world event or an ill-advised candidate comment ends up shifting the playing field, to everyone’s surprise.

October surprises have been happening earlier every year, as campaigns have gotten longer, early voting periods have expanded and trackers following every candidate have been gathering video for months, highlighting gaffes as they happen.

“Both sides are likely to get out whatever remaining opposition research still exists in key states,” said Republican strategist Brian Walsh, who’s experienced both the highs and lows of October surprises.

“But it’s hard to predict. That’s why they’re surprises,” said Walsh, who was communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2010 and 2012.

Every election year features a late-breaking shocker or two. Here’s some unexpected things to expect in the next month.

National security crises

A late-developing crisis abroad — or a national emergency at home — can have an outsized impact on the focus and tenor of midterm campaigns.

This year, the October surprise might have come early, though. Threats from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), beheadings of American journalists and the chaos in the Middle East dominating headlines led to military action in Syria and Iraq. The vote to authorize arming Syrian rebels to fight ISIS was one of the final ones taken by Congress before it left for the fall campaign.