How Will We Know if Obamacare Succeeds or Fails?

[Valin]

Via Meadia:

10/5/13

 

The news about Obamacare right now is tightly focused on the messy implementation that has gone about as bad as the ACAs critics could wish. But assuming the administration fixes these glitches, and we move on to the next phase of Obamacare, measuring whether the law is actually succeeding or not will be tricky business.

 

Two recent pieces propose different metrics for judging whether the ACA is succeeding in making our health system better and more affordable. At Bloomberg, John Tozzi proposes a four-fold scheme: one month out, the ACA should be judged on how difficult it still is to sign up; six months out, by how many people have actually signed up; one year, by how much those who got insurance from the ACA are paying; and long term, by whether health care spending is slowing down overall. His explanation of this last metric is particularly on point:

 

(Snip)

 

Meanwhile, at Quartz, Miles Kimball has a post entitled Dont Believe Anyone Who Claims to Understand the Economics of Obamacare. The whole post is worth reading, but near the end, he argues that the ACAs effect on innovation could eventually be the most important thing about its long-term legacy:

 

(Snip)

[Casino67]

Pre-OCare

 

1st Jewish mother: My son is going to be a doctor.

 

2nd Jewish mother: That is terrific. You must be so proud.

 

Post-OCare

 

1st Jewish mother: My son is going to be a doctor.

 

2nd Jewish mother: Oh, I am so sorry. You must be devastated.