Venezuela elections may stir things up

[Valin]

AEIdeas:

Roger Noriega

April 13, 2013

 

A prediction by US intelligence chief James Clapper that chavista candidate Nicolas Maduro will likely win Sunday’s presidential election in Venezuela is so simplistic that it is misleading. “[W]ith a comfortable lead in the polls, Maduro is expected to win, and he will probably continue in [his late predecessor, Hugo] Chavez’s tradition,” Clapper said in the final paragraph of his written testimony before congressional intelligence committees on Thursday. With that sort of superficial analysis, it is no surprise that Washington has no influence over whether a hostile narcostate and best friend of Iran and Hezbollah holds on to power in Venezuela.

 

Here is what U.S. policymakers and Congress should know about the April 14 presidential election in Venezuela:

 

Chávez’s anointed successor will not secure an uncontested mandate over his democratic opponent, Henrique Capriles Radonski, and this contested election will trigger a period of instability and uncertainty for the ruling party.

 

The chavista political machine will have to perform flawlessly to fabricate a numeric victory for the regime, and, if the results are close, they will provoke the opposition to reject the unfair process and expose Maduro’s weakness to his enemies within the ruling party.

 

The one thing the five-week campaign has proven is that Maduro does not have the intelligence or political weight of his predecessor to handle an opposition that is emboldened, an economy that is collapsing, and a ruling party that is bitterly divided.

 

(Snip)

 

 

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