Iraq: Dying To Bring Back The Good Old Days

[Valin]

Strategy Page:

2/15/13

 

The two million Syrian Kurds are largely staying neutral in the Syrian civil war, and doing so with the help of the 4.5 million Kurds next door in Iraq. If Syria falls apart after the Assads are gone, the Syrian Kurds could simply join the Iraqi Kurds, or so many Kurds hope. Turkey might object, seeing this as the start of an independent Kurdistan. That would have to include 11 million Kurds in southeast Turkey and the Turks would never allow that. So for the moment the Syrian and Iraq Kurds are united informally, although the economic, military and political links continue to grow. The Iraqi government dislikes this trend, but is too weak militarily to do anything about it.

 

Turkey has developed strong trade relations with the autonomous Iraqi Kurds, including getting crude oil from the Kurds and shipping back in refined products (fuel for vehicles and heating). The Shia Arab dominated Iraqi government protests the oil dealings in the Kurdish north but have been unable to stop it. The Kurds see the current Shia Arab government being as hostile to them as Saddam’s Sunni Arab government was. The difference is the Kurds are strong enough to hold off the Arabs now. There have always been tensions between Kurds and Arabs, with religion having little to do with it. Even recent threats from Iran, to obey the orders of the Shia Arab Iraqi government, have not fazed the Kurds. The Turks are willing to help keep the Iranian influence out of the Kurdish north. The Iranians can’t really threaten military action against the Kurds, since that would unite the Turks, all the Arabs and many Western nations to oppose such a move.

 

Sunni Arab terrorism continues to thrive in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, where Sunni Arabs feel threatened by Kurd efforts to expand their political control. During the 1980s and 90s Saddam Hussein forcibly pushed many Kurds out of their homes in Mosul and Kirkuk and moved in Sunni Arabs from the south. This set the stage for the current unpleasantness.

 

(Snip)