Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario: Major Recession in 2013

[WestVirginiaRebel]

CNBC:

The global economy is likely to be stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish growth in 2013, Morgan Stanley has warned, but if policymakers fail to act, it could get a lot worse.

The bank’s economics team forecasts a full-blown recession next year, under a pessimistic scenario, with global gross domestic product (GDP) likely to plunge 2 percent.

“More than ever, the economic outlook hinges upon the actions taken or not taken by governments and central banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Under the bank’s more gloomy scenario, the U.S. would go over the “fiscal cliff” leading to a contraction in U.S. GDP for the first three quarters of 2013. In Europe, the bank’s pessimistic scenario assumes a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in cutting rates and a delay of its bond-buying program.

(Read More: Whom to Blame for Global Growth Woes)

But the bank says investors should also be nimble, in case policy action is “convincing and decisive,” leading to a big uptick in growth.

“Importantly, investors should keep an open mind and be prepared to switch between the scenarios as policy developments unfold.”

The bank’s most optimistic scenario forecasts GDP growth of 4 percent in 2012 compared to around 3.1 percent this year.

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Prepping for Doomsday?

[Rokke]

Yeah. I am going to rest all my hopes that the central banks and governments prevent a global economic crisis. They've done such a great job so far. It's like handing a bunch of drunk frat boys more alcohol in the hopes they'll finally clean up their act.