The state of the Senate race

[Draggingtree]

Hot Air:

 

 

The state of the Senate race

 

 

posted at 8:31 am on November 3, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

 

 

 

 

We’re coming down to the wire in the 2012 election, and being a presidential year most eyes are trained on the race to the finish between Mitt Romney and President Obama. But control of both chambers in the legislative branch are on the line as well, and as we all know, Congress can do a lot more (or a lot less) in terms of effecting change than the chief executive. Last night, The Ish took a look at the state of the House races and didn’t see much of a change on the horizon. That’s not terribly surprising, given how each state gerrymanders their districts. But the Senate runs on a harder to bump, state by state basis and has some potential volatility built in. Today we’ll take a quick look at what’s coming up there. (Don’t take this as “final predictions” which we’ll be doing closer to Tuesday.)

 

Of the 100 seats in the Senate, there are less than a dozen that we really need to bother looking at. The GOP is sitting on 42 which are either not up for reelection or so safe that it’s not worth discussing. The Democrats have 44 in those same categories. (And I’m sorry to say to my fellow New Yorkers, our seat in this mix is in that category. It’s just not on the table.) For the record, that Democrat number includes Sanders and Lieberman, who are technically independent, but caucus with the Dems. It also includes Angus King in Maine, who will almost without a doubt follow suit and may soon make some of you pine for the days of Olympia Snowe, who was successfully hounded out of the running.

 

Still technically in the “leaner” category, but quickly sailing over the event horizon of reasonable chances are three others:

 

Nebraska : Florida: Pennsylvania:

 

THE FINALISTS (In alphabetical order for lack of any other ranking)

 

Arizona :

 

Indiana :

 

Massachusetts :

 

Missouri :

 

Montana :

 

Nevada :

 

North Dakota:

 

Ohio:

 

Virginia:

 

Wisconsin:

[Draggingtree]

Senate Control: The Outlook for 10 Key Races

 

Senate Control: The Outlook for 10 Key Races

 

By Sean Trende - November 5, 2012

 

One of the strangest things about this roller-coaster election, at least in retrospect, is that it began with a common expectation: Republicans were favored to win the Senate, usually with overwhelming odds.

 

A Senate takeover is not out of the question today, but the odds have reversed: Democrats have to be regarded as overwhelming favorites to keep control of the upper chamber. It would take a combination of state poll failures and Republicans winning all of the “true tossups” for the GOP to claim the 50 seats they need for a Senate majority (assuming that they also win the presidency).

 

One final thought before we look at particular races. I’ve previously noted the discrepancy between state and national polling. If it turns out that the latter is better than the former, it would affect the Senate surveys as well. What currently looks like a long shot for a Republican takeover would become a true tossup, with the possibility for stronger gains.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/05/senate_control_the_outlook_for_10_key_races_116057.html

[Pepper]

@Draggingtree

 

Too bad that Florida will probably send that idiotic swarmy Bill Nelson back. You haven't been thoroughly repulsed until you sit in a room and hear him speak.

 

But Nelson still looks good for 90, tho.

[Draggingtree]

@Draggingtree

 

Too bad that Florida will probably send that idiotic swarmy Bill Nelson back. You haven't been thoroughly repulsed until you sit in a room and hear him speak.

 

But Nelson still looks good for 90, tho.

I am hoping Romney's coat tails will pull Mack in

[Draggingtree]

@Draggingtree

 

Too bad that Florida will probably send that idiotic swarmy Bill Nelson back. You haven't been thoroughly repulsed until you sit in a room and hear him speak.

 

But Nelson still looks good for 90, tho.

I am hoping Romney's coat tails will pull Mack in

Analysis: Mack's Senate hopes hinge on a big Romney win

 

JACKSONVILLE — Few Floridians want to see Republican Mitt Romney win the state — and win big — than the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, Connie Mack IV.

 

If President Barack Obama carries the state again, or even if Romney wins by a slim margin, Mack may well be out of a job. He now represents Southwest Florida in Congress.

 

Mack is challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, who has a history of winning even when Republicans at the top of the ballot win.

Mack has been touring the state on a bus for two straight weeks, and at nearly every stop, he has a message for supporters: "If Mitt Romney wins, I win." "

If Romney comes in big, Mack's going to win in an upset.

http://www2.tbo.com/

[Pepper]

@Draggingtree, thanks for article

[Draggingtree]

Texas Democrat Nick Lampson Assaults Citizen Journalist

 

November 5, 2012 | Filed under 2012 Presidential Race,Asshats,Big government,corruption,Culture Of Corruption,Democrats,Douchebag Of The Day,Liberals | Posted by Warner Todd Huston

 

 

 

 

=Touting his ideas of “civility” in politics, Texas Democrat Nick Lampson instead physically pushed at a blogger and tried to grab his video camera away from him.

 

In the beginning of the encounter, Democrat Lampson is seen calmly discussing with the blogger his ideas of a “center aisle caucus,” a plan that he claimed would bring “more civility” to Congress. Lampson insisted, though, that it was current Speaker of the House John Boehner (R, OH) who “tore it apart.” When the blogger brought up the extremely divisive

http://youtu.be/oecEMqfZRcU

 

http://wizbangblog.com/2012/11/05/texas-democrat-nick-lampson-assaults-citizen-journalist/

[Draggingtree]

[Draggingtree]

If GOP misfires on bid for Senate takeover, is tea party to blame?

 

 

Tea party conservatives are likely to take a drubbing from the Republican establishment if their Senate champions falter on Election Day. But tea partyers dispute any suggestion that they are to blame if Democrats keep control of the US Senate.

 

By David Grant, Staff writer / November 6, 2012

 

Washington

 

 

If Republicans fall short on Election Day on their bid to seize control of the US Senate – a plum that not too long ago looked to be within easy reach – the recriminations will be loud and the finger-pointing furious. A likely big target of any internal GOP fury? Tea party conservatives.

 

Critics would point first to Senate races in Indiana and Missouri as Exhibits A and B for golden opportunities squandered by tea party missteps. In each contest, the GOP nominees, both of whom boast tea party backing, began with big leads that have drained away over the course of their campaigns. In Indiana, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock is in a nail-biter with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), and in Missouri, polls show GOP Rep. Todd Akin is almost certain to lose to the incumbent Democrat once considered the most vulnerable of all, Sen. Claire McCaskill.

 

But "blame the tea party" is a familiar refrain – first heard after the GOP left some prize Senate seats on the ground during its big sweep of the 2010 midterm election – and not everyone is ready to buy it this time around.

 

RECOMMENDED: Six 2012 Senate races where the tea party counts

 

“What ends up happening is a lot of observers, even those who are not totally clueless about politics ... are probably subsuming Akin and maybe some other conservative examples under the tea party banner, even though there’s not a direct link,” says political scientist Brian Calfano at Missouri State University in Springfield. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2012/1106/If-GOP-misfires-on-bid-for-Senate-takeover-is-tea-party-to-blame

[Draggingtree]

Harry Reid Vows To Change Senate Rules To Make It Easier For Obama To Ram His Agenda Down Our Throats…

 

 

Of course Dingy would go ballistic if this scenario was in reverse.

WASHINGTON

— Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) pledged on Wednesday to change the rules of the Senate so that the minority party has fewer tools to obstruct legislative business.

In his first post-election press conference, the Nevada Democrat said he wouldn’t go so far as to eliminate the filibuster, which requires 60 votes for

http://weaselzippers.us/2012/11/07/harry-reid-vows-to-change-senate-rules-to-make-it-easier-for-obama-to-ram-his-agenda-down-our-throats/

[Draggingtree]

Allen West: It ain't over til it's over

 

 

By CHARLES MAHTESIAN |

 

11/7/12 11:41 AM EST

 

 

 

 

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, GOP Rep. Allen West trails his Democratic challenger by about 2,500 votes. The race for his south Florida-based district still hasn’t been called by the AP, however.

 

Late last night Congressman West maintained a district-wide lead of nearly 2000 votes until the St. Lucie County Supervisor of Elections "recounted" thousands of early ballots. Following that "recount" Congressman West trailed by 2,400 votes. In addition, there were numerous other disturbing irregularities reported at polls across St. Lucie County including the doors to polling places being locked when the polls closed, in direct violation of Florida law,

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/11/allen-west-it-aint-over-til-its-over-148860.html

[Pepper]

@Draggingtree

Look, Palm Beach according to this even went for West, wow.

 

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/CompareCounties/?ContestId=140180

 

61,957 to 61,946

[Draggingtree]

Elizabeth Warren Bombs First Post-Election Press Conference (VIDEO)

 

 

 

by Nathan Harden - Fix Editor on November 9, 2012

 

 

In an awkward and embarrassing first step as the new Senator-elect from Massachusetts, the ancestrally Caucasian turned self-proclaimed Native American Harvard Professor Elizabeth Warren had reporters in disbelief as she proved unable to handle even basic questions in her first post-election press conference.

 

According to the Boston Herald:

A jittery U.S. senator-elect Elizabeth Warren gave one-sentence answers, ducked questions and even passed one on to Gov. Deval Patrick in an awkward first press conference since the election.

Warren spoke for a total of less than four minutes during the 11-minute press conference — the rest was taken up by Patrick and reporters’ questions.

After being asked her first question — how she’d protect defense spending — Warren was silent as she turned to Patrick.

“Defense spending is you,” Patrick prodded Warren.

“Oh, that’s mine,” Warren replied.

After Warren fielded the question, Patrick stepped in to answer the follow-up.

“Let me start,” said Patrick, shielding Warren from having to answer.[/indent]

Warren is the person Democrats were counting on to fill the shoes of Ted Kennedy, he who was known as “The Lion of the Senate” for his outspoken defense of liberal causes. Looks like she’s not up for the job.