Team Obama’s Electoral Bet

[Geee]

National Review:

As the East Coast recovers from Hurricane Sandy, the political news is of new states suddenly inundated with presidential campaign ads. First Wisconsin, then Pennsylvania, more recently Minnesota. Ann Romney is campaigning in Michigan; Bill Clinton in Minnesota.

All these are states Barack Obama carried by ten points or more in 2008. Why is the electoral map scrambled this year?

One reason, which I wrote about last week, is that Mitt Romney seems to be running better in affluent suburbs than have other recent Republican nominees. That’s one reason he made big gains in Florida and Virginia after the first debate — they are target states where most votes are cast in relatively affluent suburban counties.

The tightening race in Michigan and Pennsylvania, which Obama carried by 16 and ten points respectively in 2008, seems to reflect a move toward Romney in the affluent suburbs surrounding Detroit and Philadelphia.