Is the Ohio Trend Romney’s Friend?

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American Spectator:

MARION, Ohio -- Paul Ryan stood onstage Sunday evening and told a fired-up crowd of nearly 5,000 supporters, "As Ohio goes, so goes America."

Few would argue with the Republican vice presidential candidate. Of the 11 states rated as "toss ups" by Real Clear Politics, none is more fiercely contested than the Buckeye State, whose 18 Electoral College votes appear destined to decide this election. And the latest poll, commissioned by a consortium of Ohio's eight largest newspapers, shows the state a dead heat, with 49 percent each for GOP challenger Mitt Romney and President Obama. Perhaps more important, the poll conducted Oct. 18-23 by University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research, showed Romney has gained three points -- and Obama has lost two points -- since September, when Obama led 51-46 in Ohio.

This net five-point shift in the Ohio newspaper poll substantially mirrors a general trend, as Romney has improved his standing in the RCP average for the state by a net 3.5 points since Sept. 30. And while Obama still leads most Ohio polls (by an average 2.1 points), "The trendline is going in our direction," senior Romney campaign adviser Kevin Madden said Sunday night during the rally at the Marion County Fairgrounds Coliseum.