GOP Senate Prospects Still Lagging

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PJ Media:

 

GOP Senate Prospects Still Lagging

 

 

 

 

by Rich Baehr

 

October 15, 2012 - 12:00 am

At the start of the year, conservatives opposed to ObamaCare believed there were two realistic paths to overturning the administration’s signature piece of legislation from the president’s first term. The first was a decision by the Supreme Court to invalidate the legislation. The other was for the GOP to retain control of the House in the 2012 election, take back control of the Senate, win the White House, and then use the budget reconciliation process in 2013 to undo much of the law. It now appears that for a brief period in the spring the Supreme Court was ready to rule the bill unconstitutional, until Chief Justice Roberts flipped his vote to preserve the law.

 

The remaining electoral path does not, at the moment, appear promising.

 

Early in 2012, the Republicans seemed to have a good chance of holding the House and winning back control of the Senate. Taking back the White House was always a tougher challenge, running against a well-funded, personally popular incumbent. Now, less than four weeks from Election Day, the GOP appears to be in good shape in terms of maintaining its majority in the House, even if Republicans lose a few seats from the current majority, most likely in Illinois, New York, Florida, and California. Mitt Romney has mounted a strong comeback after a tough September and pulled about even in the presidential race, after a wipeout of the president in their initial head-to-head debate in Denver. But the Romney comeback has not been matched by any apparent improvement in the chances for several GOP Senate contenders who have slipped badly in recent months.

 

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October 13, 2012, 10:58 am196 Comments

G.O.P. Senate Hopes Fade, Even as Romney’s Rise, Polls Show

By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney has had a pronounced change of fortunes since the first presidential debate in Denver. After trailing President Obama by 4 or 5 points in the polls on Oct. 1 — a position that very few candidates have come back from — he now holds ties or small leads in many national polls and has cut the advantage Mr. Obama had in swing states to a razor-thin margin.

There is little sign, however, that Mr. Romney’s rebound has translated into races for the Senate. Although Republicans have made modest gains in a few Senate races, the polls have been poor for them on the whole. Some races have already gotten away from them, while others are on the verge of being lost.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now gives Republicans just about a 16 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. This is a precipitous drop from just two months ago. On Aug. 19, the forecast put their odds at close to 62 percent. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/13/g-o-p-senate-hopes-fade-even-as-romneys-rise-polls-show/

[clearvision]

Not good.

[nickydog]

Disappointing.