Mitt Romney five percent lead by unskewed Gallup poll data

[Casino67]

Examiner.com:

 

The Gallup seven day tracking poll of the presidential race released today showsMitt Romney behind President Obama by a 49 percent to 44 margin. The seven day tracking poll of 3050 registered voters, that has a margin of error of 2.0 percent, samples Democrats by about a 8 percent margin based on calculations from the reported data. If the data is properly weighted for the partisan makeup of the electorate, the data from this poll unskewed would show a Romney lead of 49 percent to 44. By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total.

 

The sampling used by Gallup differs with the partisan data measured from hundreds of thousands of voters by Rasmussen Reports, which measures the partisan percentages at 37.6 percent Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats and 29.2 percent independents. This indicates a degree of over-sampling of Democrats by eight percent, a plus four margin for Democrats as opposed to the plus four margin of Republicans among the likely voting electorate.

 

The Gallup tracking poll has Democrats favoring Obama by a 90 percent to seven percent margin while Republicans surveyed in the poll favor Romney by a 91 percent to six percent margin. ARG found independent voters to support Romney by a 43 percent to 42 percent edge.

 

If this data is weighted for the appropriate percentage of Republicans, Democrats and independents as shown by the Rasmussen data, the survey indicates a far larger and growing lead for Mitt Romney. Analysis of the data by those criteria would lead to a result showing Romney leading with a 49 percent to 44 percent margin over President Obama. That is exactly the opposite of what was officially reported earlier today by Gallup.

[saveliberty]

Thanks for posting this, @Casino67!

 

Calling @cudjo, @Geee, @mozartlover, @nickydog, @pollyannaish, @Pepper, @Valin

[Casino67]

Another interesting Tweet:

 

Melody ‏@prfekrdumbrella

TAKE A DEEP BREATH, If Obama were ahead would his team be threatening pollsters? remember to begin with polls favor Dems bcuz of 2008