Joel Kotkin's Take -- and Mine

[Valin]

Ricochet:

Paul A. Rahe

9/4/12

 

If you have a few moments, you might want to read in its entirety Joel Kotkin's take on the coalition forming behind Barack Obama and on what separates it from the Democratic Party of FDR, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and the elder Richard Daley.

 

(Snip)

 

So, for Obama, the game is simple. Hold the African-American vote; get the Hispanic vote; and rally those who loved Seinfeld and Sex and the City. This may work in the short run -- though I strongly suspect that it is a recipe for disaster. In the long run, as Kotkin implies, it cannot work. The gentrification of the Democratic Party -- for it is perfectly clear that the new gentry are in the saddle and will remain there -- means the abandonment of economic growth and a reduction in unemployment as priorities, which in turn means that the material interests of African-Americans and Hispanics will get short shrift (as they have in the last four years).

 

What Kotkin does not say but certainly recognizes is that this portends a political realignment in the United States. Obama's top-bottom coalition cannot last -- for the interests of the top and those of the bottom are diametrically opposed. I doubt very much that this coalition can carry the day in 2012. In the long run, however, it is bound to cripple the Democratic Party. The gentry are not going to ease up on their grip on that party. They are not going to reverse its wholehearted embrace of the sexual revolution, of abortion, and of the city as a focus of entertainment, and they have nothing to offer those who are less well off.

 

(Snip)

 

As always the comments are enlightening, and not to be missed.