The First Likely Voter Poll from Fox News Portends Mostly Good News

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The First Likely Voter Poll from Fox News Portends Mostly Good News

 

Posted by Daniel Horowitz (Diary)

Thursday, August 23rd at 9:10PM EDT

Earlier this afternoon Fox News posted their first likely voter poll of the campaign, which shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 45%-44%. Many of us were wondering how the polling would look once the pollsters switch to a likely voter screen – a model which is almost always more favorable to Republicans than a poll of registered voters. This poll of 1,007 likely voters is a far cry from the last Fox News poll of 930 registered voters, which showed Obama with a 9 point lead. Obviously, that poll was taken during the nadir of Romney’s campaign and before he got a boost from picking Paul Ryan as his running mate, but clearly the LV model makes a difference. In this case, it gave Romney a 3-point bump (Obama is up 2 when including RVs).

The likely voter screen was comprised of 42% self-described Democrats 38% Republicans and 18% Independents read more

http://www.redstate.com/dhorowitz3/2012/08/23/the-first-likely-voter-poll-from-fox-news-portends-mostly-good-news/