Where Nationalism Still Matters

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City Journal:

Asia’s simmering political tensions defy conventional wisdom.

Guy Sorman

8/20/12

 

Too often, we see East Asia only from an economic perspective, marveling at the undeniable success of China, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and South Korea. Yet these nations have another story to tell, one that owes less to current economic performance than to much older instincts: nationalism and ethnic resentment, the forces that kindled World War I in Sarajevo. Today, those forces underlie disputes in places that we ignore or know nothing about, such as the Senkaku Islands, the Dokdo Islands, and the Spratly archipelago. And those disputes may spark military conflicts between rival Asian countries.

 

Such thinking goes against the theory that trade must soothe centuries-old enmities, that commerce annihilates even the temptation of war. Isn’t this the lesson of Jean Monnet’s brilliant vision, the European Union? Wars disappeared in Europe when replaced by trade. And Asian countries certainly cooperate with one another commercially; the products that we buy after they’re exported from one Asian country or another are actually composed of pieces that travel from factory to factory in China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

 

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Further south, in the Spratly archipelago—claimed by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Malaysia—the potential for conflict is even greater. Here, too, rumors about gas mines confer on Spratly an economic value that would establish rational grounds for conflict. But these energy resources have not yet been confirmed, so the likelier reason for tension is nationalism. In Spratly as in Senkaku, Chinese imperialism tests the resistance of its neighbors, some of which—Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and to some extent even India—are considering an alliance against China. Washington has provoked Chinese anger by supporting the idea. An American shadow hangs over the region already, since the Seventh Fleet ensures the security of the shipping routes. Without it, the Asian economic web would have disintegrated long ago.

 

The Pacific pressure cooker undermines another piece of conventional wisdom: that military conflict cannot arise between democratic countries. Democratic South Korea and democratic Japan have failed to negotiate minor business and trade issues. Worse, South Korea’s position in this dispute puts it closer to dictatorial North Korea and China than to democratic Japan. On the whole, the burden of history and the internal tensions of a common civilization prove stronger than contemporary political and economic considerations. The potential alliance against China in the Spratly dispute would bring democracies together with the Communist dictatorship of Vietnam—supposedly every bit as Communist as China’s.

 

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Audio

[Valin]

Chinese Government Concerned by Anti-Japanese Protests

8/21/12

 

The dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands continues, and Bruce Einhorn, Bloomberg Businessweek’s Asia bureau chief, explains why China may not be holding as many cards as some Western observers—and Chinese patriots—think:

 

With a major leadership transition due to take place at the upcoming Communist Party congress, the last thing China’s rulers want is an escalating political crisis that will lead Asian countries wary of Beijing’s intentions to look to the U.S. for protection.

 

Einhorn also points out that Chinese leaders want to downplay the fact that they don’t actually control the islands. Should demonstrators question why Beijing isn’t standing up to Tokyo, the initial anti-Japan sentiment could fuel a wider anti-government protest.

 

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