BOLTON: Will Obama stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

[Geee]

Washington Times:

The Western world’s media are again filled with speculation, leaks, purported leaks and flat-out disinformation about whether and when Israel will use military force against Iran’s nuclear-weapons program. As America’s Nov. 6 elections draw inexorably closer, pundits and commentators are assessing whether Israel can take seriously President Obama’s assurances that he will not permit Iran to become a nuclear-weapons state.

Of course, Mr. Obama has created during his presidency the most antagonistic relationship ever between Israel and the White House. Nonetheless, his administration is now embarked on a systematic publicity campaign to persuade Israelis and Americans he will use military force in the long run, if only Israel will refrain from doing so in the short run.

How much confidence can Israel have in the assertions of Mr. Obama’s advisers that they will, in fact, launch such an attack before Iran crosses the nuclear-weapons finish line? We hear constantly that “all options are on the table.” Unfortunately, this is a statement that the Obama administration itself doesn’t really believe, that Tehran finds laughable and that Jerusalem should ignore.

Israel’s political class is split over what its course should be, and Mr. Obama is doing everything he can to exploit these internal divisions. Last week, Israeli President Shimon Peres took the extraordinary step of saying publicly that Israel should not strike on its own. Sounding surprisingly like an Obama surrogate, Mr. Peres said, “I am convinced [Obama] recognizes the American interest, and he isn’t saying this just to keep us happy.”

In a sense, Israel is united on one key point: Everyone prefers that the United States unilaterally destroy Iran’s nuclear program, or at least take the lead in a joint operation. This universal preference is straightforward and understandable, given the vast superiority of American military capabilities. An Israeli strike against just the known Iranian nuclear targets will strain its capacity to the outer limits, poses substantial risks of heavy losses in the initial attack, and raises grave fears of Iranian retaliation, either directly or more likely through Hezbollah and Hamas. Obviously, the U.S.-led option is superior.

There is, however, a serious problem. Israel’s assessment and its ultimate decision are complicated precisely because of the superiority of American military strength. If Jerusalem defers to Washington and does not strike early enough, Iran’s program could well pass the point where Israel has the necessary capabilities to break Iran’s control over the nuclear fuel cycle. Or, even worse, Iran could fabricate nuclear weapons before being detected by either U.S. or Israeli intelligence, risking that a strike by either country could bring a nuclear response from Iran.