Paradigm shift: Why Iran now NEEDS the bomb

[Valin]

The Optimistic Conservative:

 

J.E. Dyer

8/15/12

 

Let’s talk about how everything has changed, geopolitically. In August 2012, we are no longer operating on all the old assumptions that anchored behavior among the nations in the 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Interpreting what’s going on in light of those old assumptions will now lead us into error. We are wrong about some very important things today, if our thinking remains stuck in the themes of the past. Here are just four of those important things:

 

[clearvision]

For this reason, I now think there is a real possibility that Iran will try to detonate a warhead this year. The movement in the rest of the region makes the task more urgent from Iran’s strategic perspective. And the US election may well create a frame for Iran’s intentions. The clearest frame would be drawn if Obama loses in November. His lame-duck period would be the time Iran would want to shoot for.

Scary.

[Valin]

For this reason, I now think there is a real possibility that Iran will try to detonate a warhead this year. The movement in the rest of the region makes the task more urgent from Iran’s strategic perspective. And the US election may well create a frame for Iran’s intentions. The clearest frame would be drawn if Obama loses in November. His lame-duck period would be the time Iran would want to shoot for.

Scary.

 

Welcome to the XXIst century...please fasten your seatbelt.

 

You know you look back at history, The turn of the century (XX) and things are going reasonably well, then Europe decides its time to have a war, because they hadn't had one in a while....and we spend the rest of the century cleaning up that mess.

I forget who it was, but I recently read..."Something Always Goes Wrong."