Can Debates Swing the Election?

[Geee]

American Thinker:

The voters seem evenly divided today, and there are only a few things which can move public sentiment prior to November. The economy is already bad, but if it gets worse -- and is perceived as getting worse -- that could shift votes. Obama could plan an "October surprise" in the international arena, as Donald Trump has suggested, but the very modest blip after the death of Osama bin Laden and the war-weariness of Americans make that a dubious ploy which could easily fail. Romney's choice of a running mate will likely give him a brief blip in support as well, but it looks today as if there is nothing to really change voters much before November...except for the presidential debates.

Conventional wisdom is that the presidential debates are not that important, but that is not necessarily true. Nixon in 1960 lost the election because of poor makeup in his debates with JFK. Ford may well have lost in 1976 by stating that Poland was not under Soviet domination. Reagan's "There you go again" might have turned a close race into the landslide of 1980. Al Gore's intimidating lurch towards Bush in 2000 seems to have shifted votes as well. There have been televised debates in ten presidential elections, and about half the time, those debates seem to have made a difference.

 

If the debates swing voters, almost certainly those votes will move to Romney, for several different reasons. As Herman Cain recently noted, Romney is much more experienced that Obama. Romney has participated in more televised political debates over a longer period of time, through a wider spectrum of races, than Obama. Romney's life experiences are broader than the leftist academic and Chicago machine politics of Obama. Romney, viewed fairly by conservatives who did not want him as their nominee, should be a much more effective debater against Obama than McCain was in 2008.

Romney also has a valuable ace and has shown a willingness to play that ace: the establishment media is biased and unreliable. Newt Gingrich began this attack on leftist debate moderators, and other Republicans, including Romney, have spoken quite openly about the leftist bias in the establishment media. In April, Romney spoke of a "vast left-wing conspiracy" in the media, and he is a smart enough cookie to know that exposing the leftist media does not cost him votes and, in fact, energizes conservative voters. Moreover, it will put any leftist debate moderator on notice that Romney may call him out -- in front of America -- if he is not fair.