Electoral Projections: The Senate

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Electoral Projections: The Senate

Posted by davenj1 (Diary)

Wednesday, July 4th at 9:29AM EDT

 

In a previous article, I described the methodology used for the Presidential election. Unfortunately, applying that system to Senate and House races is futile. For the Senate, since there are two per state, it is difficult to get an accurate view of long and short term electoral trends even when one looks at the actual seat in play. Obviously, with House elections, redistricting every ten years totally upsets the apple cart. Because House elections are a guarantee every two years, to obtain a long-term trend, one would have to go even further back in time. Additionally, the down-ticket effect in Presidential election years that coincide with Senate and/or House elections is important and would have to be controlled for in any analysis.

First, in the Senate, let us dispense with the obvious outcomes. For the Democrats, the winners will be Diane Feinstein (CA), Ben Cardin (MD), Bernie Sanders (VT), Tom Carper (DE), Amy Klobuchar (MN) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI). For the GOP, it will be Roger Wicker (MS), Tom Barrrasso (WY), Bob Corker (TN) and Orrin Hatch (UT). Some here have expressed a willingness to dispense with Corker and/or Hatch. Hatch is out of the way and conservatives will have to wait six years to get rid of him. Corker in Tennessee is another question as they have not had their primary yet.

In the other races, moving west to east, it is likely that the race for an open Democratic seat in Hawaii will be between former GOP Governor Linda Lingle and Rep. Mazie Hirono for the Democrats with Hirono the winner. Likewise, although I believe the race will be closer than polls currently indicate, Maria Cantwell should keep the seat in Washington in Democratic hands. Assuming a Flake-Carmona match up for the open Republican seat of John Kyl in Arizona, look for Jeff Flake to win keeping it in GOP hands. In Nevada, Dean Heller will face Shelley Berkeley and, at this point, I see a 6-point victory for Heller. An interesting race to watch will be in New Mexico where John Bingaman’s Democratic seat is up for grabs. With Heather Wilson the GOP candidate, she is probably the best bet for the party and will face Martin Heinrich. Although polls indicate a Heinrich victory, this race should be very closely watched and if Wilson prevails, it could be the biggest Senate upset of the night.

There is only one poll out of North Dakota thus far and it shows Heitkamp (a Democrat) with a one point lead over Rick Berg for Byron Dorgan’s open Democratic seat. That will definitely change and Read More http://www.redstate.com/davenj1/2012/07/04/electoral-projections-the-senate/

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Were it not for my instinctive horror of the possible outcome of a Constitutional Convention in today's unsettled political atmosphere, I would love see the repeal of the 17th amendment.

 

Federalism would be stronger, our national budget would be not-so-out-of-whack, and the 10th Amendment would seem like a afterthought, an appendix, if you will, to the Bill of Rights.