What’s Happening in Iraq After the U.S. Withdrawal?

[Valin]

P J Media: An interview with Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi, an Anglo-Iraqi political analyst.Barry Rubin

6/22/12

 

Barry Rubin: Nine years after a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, has that country achieved stability and democracy? How many American soldiers are still in Iraq and what are they doing?

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Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi: Iraq has achieved a degree of stability in that the sectarian civil war that centered on Baghdad in the 2006-2008 period ended decisively in favor of the Shi’a factions. In light of the U.S. withdrawal of troops in December 2011 (with only a couple of hundred or so Marines serving to guard the large U.S. Embassy complex in Baghdad), Shi’a militant groups have decided to lay down arms and join the political process, having lost all reason for continuing to fight.

 

The Sunni Arab population generally accepts that it must adapt to the fact that the Shi’a lead the political process in the country. The Sunni insurgency that remains — consisting of Islamist and Ba’athist militants — is ideological in nature, and will continue to carry out attacks. There is a serious terrorist threat in the country but the prospect of another sectarian civil war is very remote, even though the media constantly raise this point whenever there is an upsurge in attacks, which, if analyzed, can be shown to be part of cyclical trends (e.g., an upsurge in casualties can always be expected around the time of the Shi’a festival of Arba’een).

 

So, a degree of stability has been achieved, but there is a long way to go before the country can really be called a democracy: absence of rule of law, widespread corruption, increasing autocracy on the part of the prime minister, and suppression of protests by both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government all point to an absence of real electoral democracy.

 

(Snip)

[nickydog]

That was interesting. A bit more positive than I expected.

[Valin]

That was interesting. A bit more positive than I expected.

 

Alas for the Left Iraq was/is and will continue to be a horrible terrible mistake, because...well actually I don't know why they say this, but then I don't know why they say a lot of things. On the Right what we are seeing is a resurgence of the "Old Right" and since Obama came into power the liberation of Iraq is now a failure..because A. it doesn't look like Iowa, and ODS (Obama Derangement Syndrome).

 

Like always the only time Iraq makes the news now is when something bad happens.

What will Iraq become? Ask me in 20 years.

[Geee]

What’s Happening in Iraq After the U.S. Withdrawal? - The Right Reasons