2012 contest for Senate control headed toward a photo finish

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TheHill:

The 2012 battle for control of the Senate, once considered a foregone conclusion, has turned into a cliffhanger.

The probable defeat of six-term Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) Tuesday is being cheered by Democrats, who think it will boost their chances of taking the seat and holding onto a slim majority in 2013.

 

They have watched with pleasure as primary challenger Richard Mourdock has edged out to a double-digit lead over centrist Lugar, whom conservatives deride as a RINO (Republican in name only).

Mourdock may be no Christine O’Donnell (the GOP nominee whose hapless 2010 campaign in Delaware included the need to assert she was not a witch), but Democrats hope he will prove a weaker general election foe than Lugar. They think Lugar’s ouster may give them a chance.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Early in the 2012 election cycle, no one gave the Democrats a chance, given that they were defending 23 seats, the Republicans only 10.

But the Democrats have recruited strong candidates, and been handed gifts such as Sen. Olympia Snowe’s ® retirement in Maine. It has left Democrats and Republicans alike wondering if the GOP is again going to snatch defeat from the yawning jaws of victory.

Republicans still have formidable advantages. Third-party groups, unfettered by the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United v. FEC, are on track to spend millions of dollars more to help Republican candidates than liberal groups will spend to help Democrats.

And while Republicans are worried about losing two or three seats they now hold, Democrats are scrambling to hold onto at least seven seats.

Republicans need to win four seats to gain a majority if President Obama wins reelection, and only three seats if Mitt Romney wins, since his vice president would cast the tie-breaking vote.

Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at The Cook Political Report who specializes in Senate races, says a razor-tight battle can be expected.

“I don’t think either party has an edge. I view it as a complete jump ball,” she said.