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Barack Obama's re-election bid is already in deep trouble


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barack-obamas-re-election-bid-is-in-deep-trouble.htmlDaily Mail:

Scissors-32x32.pngA cursory look back at incumbent versus challenger presidential races does not give Obama much comfort.

In April 1976, President Gerald Ford was in about the same position as Obama is now. He lost the 1976 general election to Jimmy Carter by two points. In April 1980, President Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 38 points to 32 points with John Anderson on 22. In November 1980, Reagan won by ten points.

In April 1992, President George H.W. Bush was on 46 percent and Bill Clinton on 26 percent. In November 1992, Clinton won by six points. In April 2004, President George W. Bush was on 50 percent and John Kerry on 44 percent. In November 2004, Bush won by two points.

We are already past the point at which it seems plausible that 2012 will be a repeat of 1996 when the incumbent (Clinton) cruised to a comfortable eight-point victory over the challenger (Bob Dole). Rather, we are probably looking at a 1992 scenario - an incumbent defeat - or a 2004 race - the incumbent (or the challenger) eking out a narrow victory.

All the signs are that Obama will try to do to Romney what Bush did to Kerry in 2004 - make the election turn on the character of the challenger rather than being a referendum on the incumbent. It was brutal, it was ugly and it was a process of grinding out a win on the basis of consolidating the Republican base and dividing the country.

The Romney campaign, which includes a number of people who helped map out and execute that strategy for Bush, is all too aware of the dangers of Romney falling into the same trap as Kerry and allowing himself to be defined by Obama.

Romney may be a wealthy, somewhat aloof blue blood from Massachusetts but he is no John Kerry. Indeed, the central part of his biography - the turnaround businessman - is almost ideally suited to this election, which is likely to be a transactional one in which voters ask: "Who can best deal with this economy?"

Just as Bush's allies turned what seemed to be Kerry's biggest strength - his Vietnam record in an election about national security - against him by a merciless "Swiftboating", Obama will seek to do the same to Romney by making his business record about pillaging from the poor.

But Americans are much less likely than Europeans to succumb to the temptations of class warfare. If he is to pull it off, Obama needs to do much better than jibing that he was not "born with a silver spoon in my mouth" and demanding Romney's tax returnsScissors-32x32.png

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Obammer has lost the vote of the true independent, the people that handed him the election in 08.

No "thinking person" will be voting for him.

Now, he'll still get his core because they don't think, but that's not enough to get him 51% of the delegates.

The more I think about it, Mittens has actually run a pretty smart campaign. He's stuck to his guns and despite the occasional gaffe, he's done well. His excuses about RomneyCare are still bs but, I don't think that will hurt him with independents. Conservatives will "gnash and gnarl" but in the end, they'll hold theirs noses and pull the R lever.

TOS will explode in T minus 4 days.

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