Is Iraq Spinning Out of Control? Max Boot (Update)

[Valin]

Contentions:

Max Boot
12/20/11

The political situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate at an alarming rate. Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki already stands accused of ordering the arrest and torture of aides to the Sunni vice president, Tariq al Hashimi. Now an arrest warrant has been issued for Hashimi himself based on the coerced confessions which were aired on television, in the best Stalinist show-trial tradition.


(Snip)

Is it just a coincidence that this–the worst crisis Iraq has seen since 2007–has unfolded just as U.S. troops have left the country? Hardly. U.S. forces performed a vital role as peacekeepers and stabilizers and honest brokers. With the Americans gone, a tenuous peace may not last much longer.

What we are seeing is a terrible tragedy: the Obama administration, by prematurely withdrawing, risks undoing all that U.S., Iraqi, and allied troops have fought so hard to achieve. Does President Obama care? Does he even notice what is happening as he continues to thump his chest about his success in “ending” the war? He should.

(Snip)


Just one more thing we can thank President Obama for?

[Valin]

The Telegraph: Baghdad bombs Q and A: What is happening in Iraq?
David Blair, Chief Foreign Correspondent
22 Dec 2011

Why are these attacks taking place now?

The last American troops left Iraq on Sunday, creating a security vacuum that extremists have probably been planning to exploit for some time. They have known for the best part of a year that US forces would depart at some point in December 2011. The scale and complexity of Thursday's attacks – with 14 bombs exploding across Baghdad – strongly suggests a long period of preparation.

Might there be another explanation?

A power struggle is tearing apart Iraq's coalition government under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister. Mr Maliki, a Shia, is becoming steadily more authoritarian, with critics accusing him of deliberately inflaming sectarian tensions. He has turned upon Tariq al-Hashemi, the vice-president and Iraq's most senior Sunni politician, accusing him of funding terrorist attack. A warrant has been issued for Mr Hashemi's arrest and he has fled Baghdad for the safety of the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq. Many Iraqi Shias will see the bomb attacks as the vice-president's revenge.

Is this plausible?

Probably not. The attacks would almost certainly have been planned long before Mr Maliki made his accusations against Mr Hashemi on Monday. Violence has always been endemic in Iraqi politics, but the vice-president, a softly-spoken and relatively conciliatory figure, is a most unlikely terrorist godfather.

So what really lies behind Iraq's new turmoil?

During the worst of the sectarian violence that followed Saddam Hussein's downfall, Iraqi leaders and the Americans put together a political settlement of sorts. Shia Iraqis, who comprise about 60 per cent of the population, were allowed to hold the prime ministership, the most powerful office in the country. But this was balanced by awarding the presidency to a Kurdish politician and the speakership of parliament, along with the vice-presidency, to a Sunni Arab. This settlement – remarkably similar to the national compact in Lebanon, where sectarian divisions are even more complex – is now under immense strain. With the Americans gone, Mr Maliki is trying to break the restraints on his power.

(Snip)

[Valin]

PJ Media: Iraq in Political Crisis Following U.S. Withdrawal

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki immediately tried to consolidate his power.

Aymenn Jawad

12/28/11

 

(Snip)

It should be emphasized that if these accusations regarding the vice president are true, they should not come as a shock. At least one member of Hashemi’s family had proven ties to terrorism: his nephew Asad al-Hashemi was responsible for organizing an assassination attempt on Mithal al-Alusi in February 2005. Asad planned the attack because Alusi had visited Israel the previous year.

 

Asad was eventually convicted and sentenced to death in absentia, but al-Hashemi’s political allies tried to have the charges against Asad dropped by withdrawing from the Iraqi government at the time. The sentence was upheld, and Asad fled the country.

 

(Snip)

 

In short, it is not strictly accurate to characterize the present crisis as a political conflict between the Shi’a and Sunni Arabs. It should rather be seen in the context of Maliki’s efforts to concentrate as much power in his hands as possible. Indeed, it is telling that he has just gone back on his promise not to run for a third term as prime minister, a pledge he made in response to protests in the country that reached their zenith in February of this year.

 

If the allegations against Hashemi fail, Maliki will have made a big political mistake, for Hashemi has been one of the Sunni Arab members of the parliament willing to compromise with the government. A full-blown, renewed Shi’a-Sunni civil war is a remote prospect, but there is a significant threat to stability from potential violence between political factions.

[RandyM]

Civil war and tyranny is all these people have known for centuries. No one should expect a few years of U.S. military occupation to make any difference in their basic culture.

[Valin]

Civil war and tyranny is all these people have known for centuries. No one should expect a few years of U.S. military occupation to make any difference in their basic culture.

 

 

They were IMO well on the way to having a successful civil government, then we left. I don't think people understood that in the last couple of years Americas major role was that of an honest broker between the various competing factions. Now without America there, the whole thing *may fall apart. This is a disaster on a number of levels, the least is in large parts of the world the question is being asked (once again) does America have staying power?

 

 

* or may not.