Iowa straw poll reverberations

[Geee]

Washington Examiner:

Well, the results are in from the Iowa Republican straw poll. Turnout was 16,892, up from 14,302 in 2007 and 10,598 in 1995, but well below the 23,685 in 1999, when both George W. Bush and Steve Forbes spend lots of money and lots of time on the straw poll. In percentage terms, Michele Bachmann led Ron Paul 29% to 28%, with 14% for Tim Pawlenty, ahead of 10% for Rick Santorum and 9% for Herman Cain. Rick Perry got 4% as a write-in, better than the 3% for Mitt Romney, who was on the ballot and who won four years ago, and 2% for Newt Gingrich. Jon Huntsman and Thaddeus McCotter each got, rounded off, 0%.

Consequences for the candidates:

Bachmann. She’s got a legitimate win. Some 4,823 Iowans came out and voted for her—more than the 4,516 who voted for Mitt Romney in 2007. She’s obviously got to be taken seriously as a candidate and looks likely to be the frontrunner for the Iowa caucuses—Ron Paul’s core of faithful voters is clearly larger than it was last year, but it’s very unlikely to form as large a percentage of the 100,000-plus Iowans who will vote in the caucuses than it was of the 16,892 who voted in the straw poll today. That likely makes Bachmann a serious competitor also in New Hampshire and on into South Carolina, though as a non-Southerner she may be an underdog to Texan Rick Perry there. In the meantime Bachmann will undergo more legitimate scrutiny than she has before and of course will receive some hits from MSM as well (think of the recent Newsweek cover, an attempt by Tina Brown to stay in good with her pals in Manhattan). Iowa is probably the best single venue for this candidate who was born in Iowa and has a wonderful Midwestern accent, but her appeal is by no means limited to one geographic area.

Paul. Back in 2007 Paul got 1,961 votes; this year he got 4,671. At that rate of increase he might expect to get 11,126 next time. Of course, this intervening four years included a collapse of the financial system, which made Paul’s criticism of the Federal Reserve and fiat money more relevant and more pressing. Iowa Republicans were afraid a Paul win would delegitimize the straw poll and by extension the precinct caucuses on the theory that a candidate with a strong core of supporters but no demonstrated capacity to widen his constituency would deter others from participating. Paul’s second place finish may reduce this danger. But if you were running Mitt Romney’s or Rick Perry’s campaign, you might well consider skipping the Iowa caucuses altogether and leave them to Ron Paul and the Minnesota non-twins. The contrary thinking is that Perry might want to seek a victory before South Carolina—and he got 4% of the straw poll votes as a write-in, some on the basis of his announcement speech—and, less likely, that Romney might calculate that wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would cinch the nomination for him.

[pollyannaish]

Honestly, I think this means Romney is out of it. It's actually too bad that Romney ran last time a all. He is a serious candidate who definitely coils win in the general. But. He feels like a Bush retread now and that really hurts him. If he looses to a aesthetically similar write in candidate...it's a problem. People are desperate for fresh blood in this thing. The next few months will be very interesting.

[Argyle58]

I think too much is made of this straw poll, too many things can happen between now and the primaries. Having said that, with Pawlenty calling it quits today, I think Bachmann will, for now, take the lead in the race. I think Perry's links to Bush will hurt him.