How Iowa's Straw Poll Can Lead to the Presidency

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Human Events:



Why Iowa? It was the 29th state to be admitted to the Union, it is the 30th state in population, it has given the nation Grant Wood's "American Gothic" and Meredith Willson's "The Music Man." It has long been the nation's number one corn- and hog-producing state.

But nothing in the Constitution says that Iowa gets to vote for president before any other state. It just does. For years, Iowa like many states had precinct caucuses that elected delegates to county conventions, which in turn elected delegates to the state convention, which then elected delegates to the national convention.

No one paid much attention to the precinct caucuses until 1972. But that year, Sioux City antiwar activist Alan Baron, seeking to capitalize on Iowa's traditional dovishness, promoted a poll of those attending the precinct caucuses. Vietnam War opponent George McGovern finished a strong second to party frontrunner Edmund Muskie and went on to win the Democratic nomination.

Four years later, a former Georgia governor traipsed through Iowa's 99 counties, staying in folks' homes and making the bed in the morning. He finished second in the Iowa straw poll, won the Democratic nomination and became President Jimmy Carter.

Iowa Republicans got into the act later. In 1979, they took a straw poll at a political fundraiser. The surprise winner was George Bush, former Texas congressman and CIA director, who came in slightly ahead of Ronald Reagan. Candidates considered moderate -- Bush, Tennessee Sen. Howard Baker, Illinois Rep. John Anderson -- won most of the votes.

This straw poll proved to be an accurate predictor of the precinct caucuses in winter 1980. Bush again came in first, ahead of Ronald Reagan. I remember walking with him the morning after in the Des Moines snow, as he claimed he had "Big Mo" -- momentum.

It wasn't enough to carry him to victory in the New Hampshire primary or give him the presidential nomination. But without this victory in Iowa, it's inconceivable that the George Bushes, father and son, would have been president or vice president for 20 of the next 28 years.