Is Obama's Destiny FDR in Reverse?

[Geee]

Human Events:

If we are seeing the economic recovery's reversal, will we see political history's too? Just as the Depression and recent recession are frequently compared, it is hard to not compare their two presidencies. It is easy to see why Obama would want to be FDR. Recent dismal news, however, hints the economy may not be cooperating.

Recent economic news could hardly be worse. Housing prices have continued to fall nationwide. The coup de grace came with an employment report that last month only 18,000 jobs were created and the unemployment rate increased to 9.2%.

Economic recoveries are not necessarily seamless. Even FDR learned this through bitter experience—something we often forget today. In hindsight, we lose sight: The New Deal had its own double dip—suffering a 3.4% real gross domestic product (GDP) contraction in 1938. Even so, FDR successfully traversed it into the history books.

While the parallels between the Depression and today remain economically intact, there are compelling reasons why they may not play out politically.

First, we must understand how serious a political blow the seemingly invincible FDR suffered following 1938's recession. FDR's Democrats lost 71 House and six Senate seats in the 1938 election. That was the largest seat loss in FDR's presidency, reversing four consecutive elections of Democratic congressional gains. That level of congressional dominance would never return.

FDR saw a muted impact himself. In 1940, his popular vote total fell 6% from his 1936 percentage. As in Congress, he would never regain the heights reached in his first two elections.

The difference in impacts on FDR and congressional Democrats is assuredly due to several factors, but one is particularly relevant for today's politics: timing.

Unlike Congressional Democrats catching the recession unabated, FDR had two years to recover. Obama may not be as fortunate.

If the economy does indeed fall back into recession, it is going to do so perilously close to the 2012 election. In political reality, there are only four quarters remaining that will politically influence the electorate—2011's last two and 2012's first two. If the economy falters, it is likely to do so in precisely those.