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The Obama Campaign Team's Electoral College Obsession


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American Thinker:

The GOP nominating process is more than half a year away from the first in the nation Iowa caucuses. There could be several late entries into a field that already includes or is likely to include Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and John Huntsman. Rick Perry seems likely to get into the race, and Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani are all possible late entries.

The Obama campaign team is not waiting around for an opponent to be nominated. They are hoping to have raised $60 million by the end of June, and are providing early signals on the states where they think the 2012 contest will be decided.

From every indication the Obama team believes the 2012 race will be much more like the 2000 and 2004 Presidential contests that were won very narrowly by George Bush than the 2008 election won decisively by Obama. George Bush won 31 states and 286 Electoral College votes in 2004. Those Bush 2004 states now represent 292 Electoral College votes. For Obama to win in 2012, he needs to hold all of the Kerry states from 2004 and then pick off enough Bush 2004 states to net at least 24 Electoral College votes to get to 270. In 2008, Obama won 9 of the Bush 2004 states: Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Indiana. Obama made a major effort in Missouri but lost the state by 4,000 votes. The Obama campaign team has made comments that suggest that they think Indiana and Missouri may be beyond their reach in 2012. This is telling because it hints at some misdirection by Obama campaign spokesmen last week, who talked about making a major effort to pick off Georgia (16 Electoral College votes) and Arizona (11 Electoral College votes). John McCain won Georgia by 5% in 2008, and Arizona by 9%. Are these states really better targets for Obama in 2012 than Missouri, which was practically a tie in 2008, or Indiana, which he carried by 1%? I think not, but if Obama can get the GOP to spread more of its money, time, and manpower across two states they are likely to carry, it means less of all these things for the truly competitive states -- Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, most prominently. snip
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