The Coming Battle for Egypt

[Geee]

American Thinker:


The Egyptians, in what has become the first social networking-precipitated revolution, (as described by Google marketing executive Wael Ghonim) have succeeded in the first phase of revolution. They have forced the resignation of the face of the Egyptian government for the past thirty years: Hosni Mubarak. With the military now assuming power, the rest of the world and in particular the citizens of the United States will quickly and at their country's peril turn their attention to other matters.

However, history has shown, starting with the French Revolution in 1789 through the Iranian Revolution in 1978, that these uprisings succeed or fail based on either economic or social factors or a combination of both, particularly when there is no one standing in the wings ready to assume immediate power.

The key to the future government of Egypt is economic. While there is never an ideal time for an overthrow, there are factors at play that will make peaceful transition to a true democracy exceedingly difficult and open the door for the radical Islamists to either take over or play a dominant role in any future government.

The Egyptian economy is greatly dependent on tourism, foreign investments in manufacturing and agriculture. Over 12% of the labor force is involved in tourism (equivalent to 16 million jobs in the United States). In the aftermath of the Luxor tourist shootings by Muslim radicals in 1997, tourism dropped by 30% in the following year. It is anticipated that the drop will be much greater and will not recover any time soon in light of the threat of the Islamists assuming dominant power in Egypt.