North Korea says to strike South if drill goes ahead

[Casino67]

Reuters.com:

North Korea said on Friday it would strike again at the South if a live-fire drill by Seoul on a disputed island went ahead, with an even stronger response than last month's shelling that killed four people.
North Korean official news agency KCNA issued the threat as South Korea prepared for firing drills on Yeonpyeong island near a disputed maritime border with the North for the first time since November's exchange of artillery fire.

"The strike will play out a more serious situation than on November 23 in terms of the strength and scope of the strike," KCNA said.

A leading South Korean defense analyst said he doubted the North would carry out its threat, which rattled financial markets, and South Korea's Defense Ministry said the exercise planned for December 18-21 would go ahead.

The North had said its November shelling was a response to South Korean "provocations" after an artillery battery on the island fired in what Seoul said was a routine drill.

North Korea's warning came after Seoul promised a more robust response to any further attacks on its territory. The shelling of the island was the first time since the Korean War that North Korea had attacked South Korean territory.

"They would have to be committing to a full-out war if they did that (struck again)," said Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, an expert on North Korea's military strategy.

"What's likely is they will do something as a face-saving action, such as firing their own artillery near the disputed waters," he said.

The Korean won currency fell slightly in offshore forward trading against the dollar, with the 1-month non-deliverable dollar/won forwards rising to as high as 1,159 soon after the news broke from around 1,155.

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[ErnstBlofeld]

All talk. There are no indications of any NK activity on the DMZ. If there was something brewing it would have been picked up on satellite or some sort anouncement by South Korean officials. The SK have been performing regular military drills,including with elements of the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet. In the last couple of months nothing has happened except the shelling(MRLS) incident which North Korea started.The NK cannot do anything without the blessing of their ally,China.

[ErnstBlofeld]

[Casino67]

"There are no indications of any NK activity on the DMZ. If there was something brewing it would have been picked up on satellite or some sort anouncement by South Korean officials."

 

Ernst, where did you get that info? Link?

[ErnstBlofeld]

"There are no indications of any NK activity on the DMZ. If there was something brewing it would have been picked up on satellite or some sort anouncement by South Korean officials."

 

Ernst, where did you get that info? Link?

 

There was no news excerpt for the test by the South Koreans and their test except for the usual bluster from the North Koreans. I have not heard of any major Air Force activity from my friends.There no news on a buildup.If there was a buildup you would be the first to know,believe me.The North Koreans have been huffing and puffing for six decades and done nothing except for the occasional hissy fit.If there any confrontation between the North and South it will begin on the Yellow Sea. Anyways, the North Koreans are planning a nuclear test sometime in March or May.Also, Governor Richardson is currently in Pyongyang on a diplomatic mission.He has said that there is progress in North Korea.I have included that link to this post. I am sure he will not be in the crossfire is any war blows up.I suggest for you to read "On Escalation" by Hermann Kahn.I have included the steps to war on the link.I love war and the study of war.

BTW: KCNA is the state run official news agency of North Korea

 

 

 

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/17/north.korea.us.richardson/index.html?section=cnn_latest

http://www.texaschapbookpress.com/magellanslog41/escalation.htm

[ErnstBlofeld]

"There are no indications of any NK activity on the DMZ. If there was something brewing it would have been picked up on satellite or some sort anouncement by South Korean officials."

 

Ernst, where did you get that info? Link?

 

There was no news excerpt for the test by the South Koreans and their test except for the usual bluster from the North Koreans. I have not heard of any major Air Force activity from my friends.There no news on a buildup.If there was a buildup you would be the first to know,believe me.The North Koreans have been huffing and puffing for six decades and done nothing except for the occasional hissy fit.If there any confrontation between the North and South it will begin on the Yellow Sea. Anyways, the North Koreans are planning a nuclear test sometime in March or May.Also, Governor Richardson is currently in Pyongyang on a diplomatic mission.He has said that there is progress in North Korea.I have included that link to this post. I am sure he will not be in the crossfire is any war blows up.I suggest for you to read "On Escalation" by Hermann Kahn.I have included the steps to war on the link.I love war and the study of war.

BTW: KCNA is the state run official news agency of North Korea

 

 

 

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/17/north.korea.us.richardson/index.html?section=cnn_latest

http://www.texaschapbookpress.com/magellanslog41/escalation.htm

 

 

On the Hermann Kahn "On Escalation scale it is somewhere between "Traditional Crisis" and the "Intense Crisis", but more on the "Intense Crisis" equation.

[Casino67]

As I read it, we are in the 'Intense Crisis' mode on Kahn's ladder.

 

This sentence was difficult for me to understand:

 

 

"There was no news excerpt for the test by the South Koreans and their test except for the usual bluster from the North Koreans"

 

Can you rephrase?

 

Richardson seems to be worried:

 

"Tensions are "the highest I've ever seen. I've been involved with North Korea for the last 10 to 15 years," Richardson said. "I can't remember when the tension were as high as it is now. And you worry about some kind of action hastening a potential war. And we have to avoid that at all costs."

 

It is a little after noon on Saturday in Korea, wonder what is happening?

[ErnstBlofeld]

As I read it, we are in the 'Intense Crisis' mode on Kahn's ladder.

 

This sentence was difficult for me to understand:

 

 

"There was no news excerpt for the test by the South Koreans and their test except for the usual bluster from the North Koreans"

 

Can you rephrase?

 

Richardson seems to be worried:

 

"Tensions are "the highest I've ever seen. I've been involved with North Korea for the last 10 to 15 years," Richardson said. "I can't remember when the tension were as high as it is now. And you worry about some kind of action hastening a potential war. And we have to avoid that at all costs."

 

It is a little after noon on Saturday in Korea, wonder what is happening?

 

 

Tensions are high but they have not started fighting in Panmunjom. If the USFK start seeing large numbers of North Korean troops on their side of the 38th parallel then there is a problem .That will be the first places to see fighting breaking out.

 

There was no news excerpt for the test by the South Koreans an their test except for the usual bluster from the North Koreans"

 

Its called poor editing on my part. I wanted to say that there was no news from the North except the usual bluster and the South Korean test.