U.S. missed North Korea peace signal, delivers weak response

[Casino67]

WorldTribune.com:

Throughout his long career, the U.S. comedian Rodney Dangerfield was best known by his constant on-stage complaints: “I don’t get no respect” and “I get no respect, I tell ya!”

These catchphrases succinctly epitomize the underlying logic behind Pyongyang’s latest military provocations. (Pyongyang’s audacious nuclear strategy is an on-going process. The timing of the exposure by Prof. Siegfried Hecker of the North Korean uranium enrichment program and the centrifuges was coincidental because Hecker visited the DPRK on Nov. 8-12, 2010, and Pyongyang had no influence on the time it would take him to write and distribute his trip report.)

On November 23, 2010 (early afternoon local time), DPRK artillery opened fire on the RoK’sYeonpyeong Island, located just off the coast of the DPRK and some 75 miles from Seoul. It was a premeditated incident. The KPA coastal artillery unit waited for the RoK Army to conduct its periodic test firing of K-9 155mm self-propelled howitzers (a RoK derivative of the US M-109) on the other side of the island, firing westward into the ocean. Then the KPA coastal artillery opened fire from the north-north-west. The KPA fired from two batteries in Kaemori and Mudo, both in Kangryong, Hwanghae Province. The artillery exchange took about an hour and a quarter. Most of the firing took place from 14:34 to 14:55 and from 15:10 to 15:41 local time. There was no immediate reaction because it took the RoK forces time to race their artillery pieces into position. Altogether, the KPA fired some 100 shells and the RoK Army responded with 80 shells against the KPA’s coastal positions. The KPA shelling hit both RoK Marines positions, killing two and wounding close to 20 (six of them seriously), and a fishing village, killing two civilians, wounding three and causing massive fires to more than 60 homes. The six seriously-wounded Marines were evacuated by helicopters without further incident.

[Rokke]

This is a great article. But I disagree that this latest incident has increased the credibility of the DPRK leadership. At best, it has simply underscored the fact that they are irrational and unstable. Unfortunately, I think it has greatly reduced the credibility of the ROK and its allies with respect to their willingness to stand against aggression. Two major acts of war in less than a year, with little to no response gives a much clearer message than anything the DPRK can muster. The ROK has a strong and effective air force. It should have been employed during this last incident. It easily could have, with little risk of an effective DPRK response. But the lack of response makes it clear that the DPRK is free to operate in any way it pleases both inside its borders and out.

Between now and the inevitable next attack by the DPRK, the ROK needs to increase its efforts to speak to the North Korean people. It can be done, and the impact on the North Korean government would be huge. If the ROK and its allies are too scared to hold the North Korean government accountable, maybe the North Korean people will.

[Casino67]

I can't remember who said it, some old communist dictator I think, that the best way to control the people was to keep them hungry and too weak, literally, to fight the rulers.

 

I think the entire NK people are not only hungry but are suffering the *Swedish hostage affects. If all they have heard all of their lives was the West was hostile, then they believe it.

 

I think the SKorean leader is under pressure to react this time, but unless they took out the artillery first, Seoul is destroyed again. Are they willing to accept massive casualties to retaliate for losing two marines and suffering many injuries and property damage? The north is itching for a war and any retaliation would set it off, I think. Eventually the north will get it right and leave the south no choice. And they know they have wide latitude with O in office.

 

And I really wonder how China would react to a military strike? Would they let the north go under this time? No one wants their refugees and there would be plenty of them to deal with. Could they, the Chinese, hold us back by threatening some sort of terror with our debt to them? If we were directly involved in the retaliation against the north, then I would think they would rethink buying our debt and that would be as devastating as anything they could do, short of an invasion.

 

There is no easy answer as to how to react.

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*Can't remember if that is what it is called or not.

[Rokke]

I think that more than anything else, what is important to North Korea's political leadership is their continued existence. I think they know they wouldn't survive all out war with South Korea, and all out war would be the inevitable result of a massive artillery strike on Seoul.

I think South Korea has hoped North Korea would starve itself out of existence. I just don't see that happening. But every time the DPRK successfully pokes the ROK in the eye and walks away unscathed, it reinforces to its starving people that it remains a viable and potent force. The South can't continue to let that happen.

I'm not sure China would bear the brunt of a North Korean refugee exodus. The North Koreans still identify with their brothers to the South. I do think the South has reason to be concerned about picking up the starving burden of the North. Like West Germany absorbing East Germany, the economic impact would be crippling. And East Germans weren't starving to death when the border disappeared. I half wonder if the ROK doesn't fear that result more than any other.

But above all, I completely agree with your last statement. There is no easy answer. And even the status quo isn't sustainable.