Handicapping the House — Weekend Brief

[Geee]

Pajamas Media:

The Democrats have a lock on just 123 seats, down 9 in just these last four days. The GOP has a lock on 163, unchanged. Now, you might fairly ask why the GOP isn’t generating any more safe races, if the Democrats are really so unpopular. Kids, the Republicans only hold 177 seats — there just aren’t any more safe seats for them to gain.

If the election were held today, the GOP would likely win 212 races, six shy of the magic 218. The Democrats would hold on to 183, which, by my calculations, is… way less.

The interesting action is in the middle column, the Toss-Up races. At first glance, things seem nearly unchanged, up one to 40 from 39. Look closer, and 11 races — more than one in four — have moved around in there. Five Democratic Leaners moved into the Toss Ups from the left; one Leans GOP moved in there from the right; two seats moved right into Leans GOP; and three very lucky Democrats moved out of the Tossers and into Leans Dem.

[Stella]

I am very distraught about my district. It has been held by the GOP for as long as I can remember. It is now switching over to a Dem district. Mark Kirk has hung onto it for the last few years. But now, the guy who always lost, Dan Seals, is leading the guy running as a Conservative, by 11 points. Seals doesn't even live in my district but is an Obama look alike who has lost the last 4 elections.

 

Instead of running as the GOP candidate, Dold has made a point of running as a Conservative instead. So, now instead of keeping a GOP vote in the House, it will become a 100% Obama vote. And that makes me angry

[Geee]

Stella. I grew up in Lake County and watched it change year after year from a safe conservative county to a Lib county as the people from Cook County moved there and made it the county they moved away from cause they didn't like what it was I still read the county paper on line, just to keep up with some of the home town peeps. It has endorsed the Dem Governor and Senate candidate. Never would have happened when I lived there.