This Week at War: The Taliban Play Let's Make a Deal

[Valin]

Small Wars Journal:

Robert Haddick
October 8, 2010

On Oct. 6, the Washington Post reported that Taliban representatives and the Afghan government have begun negotiations on how to end the war. The Post's sources emphasized that actual bargaining between the two sides has yet to begin. Further, only the Quetta Shura branch of the Taliban, led by Mullah Mohammad Omar and based in Baluchistan, is participating. The Haqqani network, located in Pakistan's North Waziristan and thought to have extensive ties with al Qaeda, is not involved. Given U.S. President Barack Obama's well-known eagerness to wind down the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan, the prospect of a negotiated settlement must be appealing. The questions now become, what settlement will the United States tolerate and what will be the longer term implications of a truce?

According to article, the Quetta Shura is now "very, very serious about finding a way out" of the war. Why? The article suggests that the Shura's leadership fears that it is losing control of its organization. Mullah Omar and his lieutenants now supposedly fear that "radical elements" -- presumably battlefield replacements -- are taking over the bottom rungs and will someday threaten the top leadership. Under this theory, the Quetta Shura would prefer a truce that would allow it a chance to sort out its internal challenges.

This description of Mullah Omar's motivation for a truce sounds speculative. Of more importance are the Pakistan government's incentives for signing off on the deal. Indeed, the article discusses Pakistan's desire to maintain firm control over any negotiations. An August New York Times article described how the Pakistani government deliberately scuttled a Taliban negotiation effort last January that was bypassing Islamabad. According to that piece, Pakistani officials were in no mood to a permit a negotiation that did not include Pakistan's interests.

(Snip)


Aside......(prepare yourself for a shock) I have just started reading Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History
Thomas Barfield
So far it looks very good, very readable.
Foreign Affairs review
Foreign Policy review